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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (6062)	6/20/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Allan, I suspect that we've heard most of what we're going to from the Y2K doomsayers. 1. Y2K is less than 6 months away. We'll remember who the buffoons are. 2. It's almost always the unanticipated stuff that kills you. The media has been hyping Y2K for about 3-4 years; and IT has been addressing the concern in dribs and drabs for over a decade. In the last couple years, IT shops have had Y2K as a top priority assignment for mission critical applications. Re SCH taking a 40% haircut. Check the whole health sector. Money has been rotating out of it for at least the past 4 months. The sector rotation game has been going on as long as I can remember regardless of bull or bear market overall. Rather than skepticism, I just see this as a normal healthy market. If a sector disappoints, it gets creamed. This, IMO, has done an outstanding job of preventing the bubble that Fleckenstein sees; and that our best friend, Mr G, now says he is apprehensive about. FWIW, Ian.

To: Allan Harris who wrote (6062)	6/20/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: Lars	Respond to of 15132

Allan, >>> I don't see any fear in the market right now. Every other call to Brinker's show is either about an impending Sell signal or how to protect assets in the Bear market or how to short the SPY or some other defensive strategy. Meanwhile the Internet speculators have been decimated an even SCH was been given a 40% haircut. Y2K doomsayers will grow louder into the Summer and Fall seasons. There is plenty of skepticism and fear all around, if you chose to recognize it as such. AH HA! >>> I still don't see the fear. From a historical perspective, this is a walk in the park. As for SCH, yes it got ahead of itself. So much so, that even Ron Baron sold some shares. I will probably get stones thrown at me but I don't think Schwab is going to have as rosy a future as everyone thinks. Not that they won't do OK. Brinker's callers aren't a good sample IMHO. I can't prove it but I doubt that most of them daytrade. Plus, they are reacting to what he says. They aren't finding the fear for themselves. Brinker is a light in a dark cave. You will know fear when it is "really" here. It is going to be tough. No one will want to own most of the nuts. In fact, most will question owning equities. And.....yes, this will happen after most of the decline or right about the time Lars becomes a 2 Beta Brinkerhead to the upside. As Warren has said, "You don't find out who is swimming naked until the tide rolls out." FWIW.

To: Allan Harris who wrote (6062)	6/20/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Alan: Re: "Every other call to Brinker's show is either about an impending Sell signal or how to protect assets in the Bear market or how to short the SPY or some other defensive strategy." This should come of no surprise as Brinker listeners respect his advice otherwise they would not bother wasting their time listening to him. Re: " Meanwhile the Internet speculators have been decimated an even SCH was been given a 40% haircut.... There is plenty of skepticism and fear all around, if you chose to recognize it as such." Yeah, Chuck seems plenty scared <VBG>.