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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeet Shipman who wrote (40803)	6/20/1999 9:31:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Skeet, it is possible that the market will enter into a slow grind downwards; however, i don't think it likely. both the market's overvaluation and the wide-spread participation by the public point to the potential for a panic. while i have no idea as to when exactly this will happen, i am quite certain it will happen. again, my only guide to this is history. manias always have ended with panics in the past, why should this one be different? you are correct that AG is starting to take liquidity away, and interestingly he has stated that he feels that no negative outcome for the 'real' economy is pre-ordained in the event of a crash, as long as the 'proper policy responses' are taken. i strongly disagree with this; imo the fate of the economy and the stock market are now intertwined to such an extent that a crash would stop the economy dead in it's tracks. what AG has hinted at, is that fear of a crash will not keep him from raising rates if he thinks it appropriate. i suspect he may raise rates once or twice and will have to take those rate hikes back in a series of emergency moves as financial markets collapse under the weight of higher rates and Y2K. i hope i will be proven wrong. regards, hb