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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (23040)	6/20/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: Dutch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Don, Analyst compensation is not derived from buy/sell, it is from attracting underwriting fees. Stong Buy/Buy signals accomplish this, you know this as do most who read this thread. You are correct in the latitude that a "newsletter" author may have from a legal stand point. My point is if you think you can time the market or time RMBS more power to you. Get the #$^& out of the NW and teach those guys on Wall street a thing or two. I, like most on this thread will buy, hold and thank the contributions made on this site. In the mean time, while we are buying at a "documented" $10 discount to your recent purchase price, please refrain from pump and dump.....etc.,comments. I like your realism, but come on and give credit where credit is due. It is and will be up and down, but TIMING is a MYTH. The 10% that do are true to statistics, 10% should get it right. The odds are 10% will! Thx. Dutch

To: Don Green who wrote (23040)	6/21/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

<< Actually the "pump and dump" was in ref. to comments made by someone else. >> I know that Don. I think it was melodramatic. <<As for analysts my wife was a well respected research analyst for Goldman, and J.P. Morgan for many years, and I have many friends who are still CFA's and also fund managers. I know very clearly how they are compensated and operate.>> So if you know this, why did you say that all that is at stake for an analyst is a bonus? There are more than just bonuses at stake, and this is why analysts never rate a stock a "sell." It is a big game, and analysts are not clean. You say you know how analysts are compensated, but you kept that to yourself, and instead referred to some bonus. Analysts can make $2 million or more per year if they bring in enough underwriting revenue from the companies they follow; however they can also lose their jobs if they don't make their underwriting revenue quotas. I think you need to be a bit more forthright regarding the analyst game and the phony facade it entails. Remember the major broker house analyst who issued a sell on AMZn, saying it was a $30 stock, or somesuch? I agreed with that. He was relieved of his duties. I wonder why? David Dreman did a study a while back for a ten year stretch of time. His findings indicated that analysts' estimates of corp earnings are substantially wrong, to the optimistic side, more than 65% of the time. I think it is deliberate on the part of analysts. Then there is the whole earnings estimate/beating estimates game, a whole other realm of gaming the system by analysts and companies. << As for Rambus getting hit, I think I said earlier it will likely get hit hard, but rebound quickly and I prefer to step aside with profits and buy lower and wait for rebound. I am very pro Rambus, I just don't like the VERY high P/E, and lack of coverage by many big players. As for "outperforming the market" doesn't mean too much if the market is down 2000 or 3000 points from here a year from now. >> Do you mean the Dow? Please tell me the level at which the market will begin to make the XXX-point plunge, what the point drop will be, and when it will start to reverse. If you cannot tell me this then, IMO, your above-stated strategy is completely without merit. I still don't understand your apprehension re the analyst coverage thing. You could buy microsoft- they're covered by lots of analysts, aren't they? thanks Victor