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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6078)	6/21/1999 5:56:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: In the event of a bear caused by rising interest rates where the FRB is trying to slow the economy, the semi equip stocks will get creamed IMO by the market as it discounts a slower economy or recession in the future. I plan to dump more than hedge. One cannot force these stocks into a LTCG as that has proved a mistake except for the real die hard long term investor who is willing to do a round trip and has invested in quality stocks in the sector like AMAT and ASML that have shown appreciation from cycle to cycle. There is, of course, the option of adopting Chuck's thinking. One might consider the possibility that internet stocks - especailly those of the penny variety in Chuck's posting history -- will surge in a bear market <VBG>.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6078)	6/21/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 15132

I will Sell the SemiCaps If Bob calls a bear while this semi capex cycle should still be running you guys planning to hold and maybe hedge or dump Many have made large profits in these equities already and they will be among the first equities to be sold but I will buy back in at hopefully lower prices.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6078)	6/21/1999 10:05:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: I should mention a hedge strategy for those so inclined with perhaps part of their semi capex portfolio. Say you have some AMAT and you want to keep it for whatever reason. One might consider shorting an equal dollar amount of say LRCX as a hedge. If you are right, you will shift your short term gain in AMAT to your short position in LRCX effectively and may be able to defer your short term gains until the following year if you decide to cover your LRCX short and the market goes your way. You are effectively shorting against the box to a degree with this strategy without the tax ramifications because you are shorting a different security. All this allows you do to is to keep your AMAT for long term gains for another cycle as you will have a short term gain in your LRCX that you will more than likely take before a year is up. Food for thought.