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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18022)	6/21/1999 10:25:00 AM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I do indeed think that the actions of the "nutz" over the next few days will give us an indication of the direction for the next month or so. Looking at the dot.x, we have still not recovered above the levels from which the large triangle was exited. If this were to happen, it would be a very bullish sign, in my view. This coincides roughly with the 50-d EMA (EMA is slightly lower). But until this happens, I tend to believe that we are still preparing for a downmove. I have been positioned accordingly since 1325 or so, but covered a couple of times as we've made intraday moves. As Bear King states, the real confirmation of his count would come when the old highs are taken out. I will wait until that happens before going long. At that point I would expect a very violent upside move, and I don't think that I will have missed too much by waiting. It just seems like a lot of people are "anticipating" the upside, instead of waiting for confirmation. (but maybe I'm just slow to recognize the trend change! <ggg>) I do think that what LG mentions about moving above the long-term uptrend line is significant, and am watching this with great interest. There's no question that such an "acceleration" of the long-term uptrend can be powerful...and its point of inflection also tends to become difficult to call (just as you pointed out with Japan). Have a good one, j.o.