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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (4269)	6/22/1999 7:24:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 5676

Yes. I don't like it. Everything is fine, isn't it? In 1987 the first leg down from the top lasted 18 trading days, and the correction up 10 days. In the first day of the correction the market ran 3% up. The crash phase began on the 29th day. Panic selling began on the 35th day and Black Monday was day 38 from the top. In 1929 the first leg down from the top lasted 23 trading days and the correction 5 trading days. In the first day of the correction the Dow jumped up more then 6%. The crash phase started on the 29th day. Panic selling began on the 36th trading day from the top, but the low wasn't achieved until 49 trading days from the top. In Tokyo, 1989, the first leg down lasted 10 trading days, and the following correction 13 trading days. The crash phase began on day 24, and panic selling on T+27. Medium term bottom was reached only on T+54. 1997 Hong Kong was a chartist's text book classic- Leg one took 16 days, the correction 21 days, and the crash phase started on T+38. Panic selling commenced on T+47 and bottom was reached on T+53. Crash......1st Leg...Correction....Bottom.....Bear market duration 1929 ............23.............5.................T+49.......3 years 1987 ............18............10.................T+38.......3 months Tokyo 1990...10...........13.................T+54.......8 1/2 years HK 1997........16............21................T+53......1 year Today ..........10............16.................???.........??? From this table 1987 looks like the exception in the short time it took to the ST bottom and the lack of a longer term bear. I always claimed that 1987 was a crash of a lesser degree. Very sharp, yes, but it had no correlation with an economic downturn, and did not leave any long lasting mark other then the "buy the dip" mentality ;-) ATG