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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (48414)	6/21/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 86076

give me a break.. I would never say somehting as foolish as "this mkt will drop"... this is a one way street and that is UP... besides MO would have to break out of its current uptrend from its early '99 low for it to give a crash signal. and that will NEVER happen.

To: MythMan who wrote (48414)	6/21/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 86076

did you see the WSJ working over the Gold council today?? John Ryding of Bear Sterns, putting more nails in the coffin -g- June 21, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gold Price Is Still Sagging Despite New Ad Campaign By PETER A. MCKAY Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The gold market just can't seem to get its timing right. Smiling cruise ship passengers tip their top hats and wave through a shower of confetti and streamers in a 1929 photo being used in the World Gold Council's latest advertising campaign. Under the photo is the headline "party crasher," referring to the stock-market crash later that year that ended such care-free opulence. But to a certain extent, the gold industry's campaign celebrating gold as a sound investment has also been crashed lately, especially by the British government's announcement of sales of the metal that has driven gold prices even lower. Gold council officials shrug off the 9.6% drop in gold prices since the $3 million ad campaign debuted on May 3 as not reflective of gold's long-term value as a hedge against inflation. "Our ads are not so much about the value of gold as they are about the value of gold in your portfolio as a portion of it. The council had been planning these ads since at least the fourth quarter of last year, and their message really hasn't changed since then," says Pat Shaine, the account director handling the ads for DellaFemina/Jeary & Partners Advertising Inc. Still, the organization of gold mining firms has scrambled to develop new "tactical" ads responding to the recent drop in gold prices. That decline apparently was just as unforeseen to the group when it started its gold "image" campaign as any of the financial collapses in their ads were to investors of those eras. Each installment of the trade group's image campaign pokes fun at some investing fad or points to a financial calamity that struck when it was least expected. "It's a message that we think is timeless, regardless of what else is going on," says Michael C. Barlerin, the gold council's chief executive for the Americas and Europe. So far, the first three of five ads in the series have run, starting with the one on Tulip Mania, a 17th-century investment craze in which tulip bulbs soared in value. Gold council officials say they began brainstorming ideas for the campaign when year-end statistics showed increased U.S. gold sales and strong demand for gold coins and bullion in 1998. Only print versions of the ads have run so far, but related broadcast commercials are being developed as well, adds Mr. Barlerin. The print ads' text concludes by comparing gold to investing manias, saying the precious metal lasts "forever." The ads conclude: "In a volatile world, many smart investors keep a portion of their portfolios in the asset that retains its value over time: gold." However, gold hasn't even retained its value over the course of the ad campaign itself. Through last Friday, the price of the nearby gold futures contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange had fallen to $260.30 an ounce from $287.70 on April 30. A key development was the May 7 announcement by the British Treasury that it would sell 125 metric tons of gold from reserves. Following news of the planned sale, the gold council commissioned a public opinion poll in Britain and ran an ad saying it found that 54% of the public disapproved of the sale. But gold sales by governments appear to be a fait accompli. In the past three years, gold has lost more than 25% of its value, mainly because European central-bank sales have flooded the market, analysts say. Investors have feared for months that the International Monetary Fund and the Swiss government may also sell off some of their reserves. John Ryding, senior economist at Bear, Stearns & Co., points out that gold prices have been in an "abysmal" decline for almost 20 years. The front-month futures contract for gold has declined 70% since reaching its all-time high of $873 an ounce on Jan. 21, 1980, a plateau it has never approached since, notes Robert Hafer, managing director of Bridge/Commodity Research Bureau. "Gold is a great hedge to prevent you from becoming rich," scoffs Mr. Ryder when told of the gold council ads.