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Non-Tech : The New Iomega '2000' Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (891)	6/21/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5023

OK, I admit it. I cannot stay away. Flame away, I deserve it. I thought it would help to put a stake in the ground. Nope, the stake was placed in sand, about 1" deep. I have to respond to Darrell's great post. << Ken, IOM's share price demise has had to do with expectations. >> I would say it has more to do with Iomega not being able to make a profit and the stock's lack of institutional support. The stock is trading hands amongst people who really have no clue. This is why I'm afraid to short it. Anything can happen in the short term! But the fact is: The ultimate price (the long term) will be determined by actual earnings. If Iomega can't sustain earnings, it WILL go the way of Syquest. That statement is a fact. So, you have to ask yourself: Is Iomega on the road towards ultimate profitability? Or even more than that: back on the road to being a growth company? The answer lies in my answer to your statement: << IOM has been developing the right model; but they've not executed that model in a timely manner. >> What exactly is this model? Can it be articulated? The model seems to be shifting, and the bulls adjusting along with it, compounding their problems. Is the model to include a ZIP in every PC, replacing the floppy? Is it to make money of the drives? the disks? OEM? retail? Is it to provide storage 'solutions'? Flood the market with a tons of different storage devices? The most alarming thing coming out of the last few days is the realization that Iomega cannot make money on ANY product except for the ZIP line, AND they are willing blow this franchise by pushing CLIK! for laptops, Jaz for high end, CD-RW for PCs etc... Iomega has NO advantage over other larger competitors by offering the kitchen sink. none. Imation actually looks MUCH better than Iomega at this point. Note also how EASY it is for a competitor to come in and have a material effect on the company. Syquest, Imation then Castlewood. The competition is only getting greater, and more advanced (hence, a better deal). Castlewood blows away all Iomega products on specs. << look at Sandisk. Sandisk has $145 million in sales and $1 bill marketcap. THAT is a highly leveraged storage medium. IOM with $1.6 bil sales and less market cap than Sandisk. >> Good point. But, Sandisk's revenues show exactly how small of a piece of the pie Iomega can expect from CLIK! Iomega MAY get 10% of that for $15m in revenues. Less than ditto!!! << also, Jodie wouldn't have said "10% sales for the clik!" if he didn't already have contracts in hand >> Ahh.. The bullish dream quote. Sometimes you need to think for yourself rather than blindly believe management! This can easily be done by dropping Jaz, dumping Ditto, and having ZIP revenue slack off more. I would much rather see CLIK! adding 10% INCREMENTAL revenue, over a stable base. The base is shrinking!!! kp

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (891)	6/22/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5023

Darrell, I take exception to this statement you made... "Sandisk's profit/gain history is also spotty, which says little about future potential. but, clearly, at current price points, flash is not a medium for the masses - it remains a niche, although a growing niche." Flash competing in a "niche" market? Give me a break. Since when is mainstream consumer electronics a niche market? also... "the market expected more of IOM than it expected even of SNDK (with SNDK's cash and addtl proper leverage, they could actually make an IOM buy-out offer. funny world.)" Flash memory and rotating media will never marry. You can pretty much bank on that. To even hint of SNDK acquiring IOM is ridiculous. finally... "odd that IOM expected more revenue from clik! than SNDK made all last year and the market is valuing SNDK market cap from their small revenue of $145 million revenue at $1 billion plus." I find it odd that Clik! wasn't designed to fit in a CompactFlash slot. The market knows the golden rule... "CARDS FOLLOW SLOTS" Ausdauer