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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40832)	6/21/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

<<What is REALLY telling is that if someone else would forecast that the DOW will rise 1,000 points this week... THAT wouldn't sound crazy!>> You're going contrary to your own logic? That's very dangerous, as I think you're a pretty smart guy! <g> The Dow hasn't rallied strongly yet as the urgent priority is to get into the leadership (nazdaq/tech) of this next bull leg. They're white hot, but when they cool, watch for the Dow to get into gear. Nothing spectacular... 3 or 400 points up on the week maybe? BWDIK, BK

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40832)	6/21/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, the rational, sensible thing to do is to recognize that we are in a mania; one of the attributes of a mania is that it can carry the market a lot higher than most people think. it is therefore just as dangerous to bet against it as it is to bet with it. there is no doubt in my mind that it will all end in tears, eventually. but when and from what level the end will begin is anybody's guess. why the Dow should drop 1,000 points this week instead of next, or the week after next is something you have left unexplained (proprietary indicators?). btw, a high-yield bond fund is not the place to be in case the stock market tanks. treasury bonds are, and they don't yield 11%. i agree that anyone not calling this a mania needs his head examined - but whoever will end up calling it's top probably just got lucky. remember the blow-off in the nikkei starting in late '88, at a point where everybody with a shred of sanity knew that market was the most overvalued of all time - it proceeded to run from approx. 27,500 to almost 40,000 with scarcely an interruption, until the last of the shorts had lost his/her shirt. who's to say a similar thing can not happen in the U.S. market? of course, in view of the 55-day rule, it may be over already..<g> regards, hb

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40832)	6/22/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, >>PS I stand by my forecast that the market will drop 1,000 DOW points this week, no matter HOW nutso that sounds. What is REALLY telling is that if someone else would forecast that the DOW will rise 1,000 points this week... THAT wouldn't sound crazy! 1. It would to me. 2. If we take out 6/11 low (SPX 1287) I'd be convinced it's crash time and target below last October. -1000 Dow points will most probably break this number. 3. Did the summer solstice mark a turning point? I think GZ was taking the solstice into consideration. ATG