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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18092)	6/21/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

HB, bond market keeps reverting to facts...consider that mortgage applications for new home purchases surged 1.7% last week and are up 13% in the past month to a record high! Single-family housing starts have soared to their highest level in 21 years and motor vehicle sales this year are on track to smash the 1986 record. Initial jobless claims have plunged back below the 300,000 threshold. And, further on the jobs front, the Fed's 'beige book' noted that "labor markets were extremely tight last month in almost all districts, with no signs of easing in the foreseeable future." lp-llc.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18092)	6/21/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz Keep in mind there is a PC Expo in NYC this week which CNBC will be at live on Tues. A lot of tech / pc hype always comes from these shows, likely one of the reasons for strength in NASDAQ today. This hype will most likely carry over in techs for a few days. regards Don

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18092)	6/21/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

timely.com Heinz, this chart looks very bullish, the move paused at the downtrendline and made a little two day flag and now has broken out convincingly above the 50 day band, we are now sitting near horizontal resistance, i believe we need to consolidate and not have a big reversal here to keep the bull case alive. decisionpoint.com NYA is traveling in a channel, from 12/14, as long as we remain in the channel the bulls are favored to win (oops, sorry the SPURS -g-) i would like to see cboe putz/cawls get in the .40-50 area, before turning bearish again. bwdik

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18092)	6/22/1999 1:29:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I fully agree with you. I wasn't looking for much of a pullback here until tonight. As usual Murphy's law is in full effect and I was unable to get my TRIN, Advance decline data etc from Reuters but I did get all my stock and index data. It is hard to put what I saw tonight into words but as I went through all the charts, there was an unusual abundance of short term indicator over bought levels, prices approaching fork tines, resistance lines etc. This prompted me to take a different look at a few things...... I highly recomend looking at my 2nd version of the DOW and SPX chart. Not the first ones but the second look ones at the MDA website. I didn't apply the normal 9 month cycle or anything scientific like that but I measured the drops from the last lows of a correction to the next drop then made matching lines in length and strung them over the next few cycles on the DOW. According to this we are over due for a stronger pullback. Also the DOW has always broken its prior base after having a large positive MACD cycle which we just finished and haven't broken down yet. The SPX also is straddling a long term trend line dating back to 96. It wouldn't be that big a deal and still may not be but this line is perfectly bisecting the recent cycles we have gone through. As I went through the rest of the charts, All three utility indexes are falling convincingly and the TYX 30 yr bond rate index bounced and if it continues points to a rate of 6.2 - 6.25% by next week. This is not just a fork read but is being confirmed by the action in the UTY, SPU and DUX. As I mentioned earlier, the sector indexes are also registering over bought levels yet many of them have only managed to perform fib retrace levels from the last drop only gaining back around 50% of their losses. Lastly the NYSE formed a hanging man formation which should imply that Don's signal is timely as usual and the drop should start tomorrow. While originally I was not looking for much of a pullback, I am now turning more bearish since with so many sector index showing the potential for a drop, the cumulative affect on the major market could be huge. Couple this with the interest rate increase caused by the weakness in the bond and this could get ugly. All we need is a cover story for the spark. Any nasty news hiding around the corner we can blame for this??? One last note, the strongest sector charts, the XCI, CWX and SOXX are getting toppy here and the CWX especially is near the top tine of the weekly chart that I did NOT update tonight, and has passed the top tine of the daily chart which means I either have to extend the tine or else as I noted on the chart could be a type of violation I see often though not technically approved <g> Good Luck and be careful buying this dip as I was originally planning to do and many others I know are planning to do. EDIT - The SPX vs NDX and the SPX vs NASDAQ that someone had me build is approaching it's highest point relative to past peaks also. I haven't added this chart as I am not sure many would use it but it is barely below the last 3 tops as of today's close. Lee