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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (18105)	6/21/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

Some good commentary from a recent Fleckenstein column. He makes a point that I have been pushing too- Inflation is a certainty in a democracy: >>It is a bubble.... Greenspan's statement that you can't tell about a bubble is complete nonsense. If you read the history books, many people understood that it was a bubble in the late '20s, and that it was a bubble in Tokyo. By definition, those who believe in a bubble have to be in a minority or it can't occur. Greenspan made clear one of my long-held beliefs - that in a social democracy all roads lead to inflation. You can see that in the Fed's response to all problems in the last few years, and you can see it in Greenspan's testimony, where he makes it clear that they've been very reluctant to take back the 75 basis points even though they admit it's no longer needed. Actually, my friend Colin Negrych said it best as follows: "Greenspan's comment, 'To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong,' is laughable. All these hundreds of thousands of investors wanted to be informed about was whether Greenspan would continue to defer to them. He did." That about sums up what Greenspan did today, in my opinion. I think that even though the next recession will see a collapse in many different kinds of asset prices, one should know that the policy response to everything is to print money. That's why I've been a long-term chronic bear on the dollar and why one has to be favorably disposed toward gold and silver, because at the end of the day somehow you have to protect yourself from a purchasing power standpoint. In this cycle, stocks have done very well, but that typically is not the case. << stocksite.com TW

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (18105)	6/22/1999 12:11:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim , All this just won't work, the index may go a little higher but it's way to narrow and if only a few stocks are making it people will soon give up. decisionpoint.com ------------- decisionpoint.com THe entire market come back since last Oct has left the majority of stocks still below their last July highs, it's just been to few and that makes a problem if any one wants to take profits. The indexes look good but they are not telling the real story. Jim