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To: shane forbes who wrote (18995)	6/22/1999 5:22:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Make that: Toss up between 'membership fees + quasi-ads' vs. 'no membership fees + ads' I said earlier that 12% SIA forecast was too low and was not going to be supported by the prices of the stocks (esp. my smaller buds). Here's STM's Dauvin's forecast from today's Bloomberg: --- STMicroelectronics Sees Semiconductor Market Growing 15% in '99 Paris, June 22 (Bloomberg) -- The worldwide semiconductor market should grow 15 percent this year as the market enters a growth cycle of ''at least three years'' from 2000 to 2002, said Jean-Philippe Dauvin, vice president and chief economist at STMicroelectronics NV, Europe's No. 2 chipmaker, in an interview with daily La Tribune. Growth could reach 25 to 30 percent a year or more, he said. To handle the recovery, ST is studying a second research center at its plant in Crolles, France, which would call for an investment of 2.9 billion euros ($3 billion), employ 600 people and could start production by the end of 2001, the paper said. The Semiconductor Industry Association said June 9 it expects global semiconductor sales to rise 12.1 percent this year to $140.8 billion, marking the first time the industry will post double-digit growth since 1995. --- [If however the growth rate hops to 25 to 30+% then the sector is way way underpriced! We won't see 25 to 30% in 1999 that's for sure. It'll be closer to STM's 15% or so I think and a little bit more to maybe a max of 17% I'll guess if a few pieces fall into place. DRAM's est. gains of $3-5 billion as usual mess things up. They should have a 'core' growth rate that excludes the volatile MPU sector and the DRAM sector or at least the DRAM sector - just like the _PI indexes that exclude the 'volative food and energy' sector. Then people can see the true trend net the big parts of the junk 'commodity' trend.]