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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6680)	6/22/1999 1:39:00 AM
From: La Traguhs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

My take on the situation with HTCH: a) I understand IBM high-end demand (>10GB) is down - - - due in part to competition from Seagate and Fujitsu and also in the downward shift in capacity as many server designers focus now on performance and less on capacity (multiple [say 3] 9GB drives perform faster [in many server apps] than say, one 27 GB drive). This is one reason IBM shifted the lower capacity drives (less than around 18GB) to Fujisawa where they have more efficient designs at lower costs for that capacity. b) Heads/drive is coming down with the increases in areal density. c) The volume action is picking up in the two platter, or less drives, with, as I predict - a single platter (one surface) single head offering 4.3GB in volume in Q4. This will further cause the heads/drive number to drop further. They will be TSA and other similar types but just not as many. d) Now, that should all change when the non-PC apps come up requiring a renewed emphasis in capacity - causing the head/drive ratio to start back up. e) As for the recall of the employees - I just hope Fortun has better indications than I have that demand will be picking up - soon. So now could I summarize but saying HTCH looks real good long?? I thing so. Regards, LT

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6680)	6/22/1999 6:02:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Respond to of 9256

<<Today, we saw HTCH say they were actually selling less units, not that they were having an ASP problem as has been suggested by the Maxtor, Quantum and WD.>> Actually, HTCH selling about the same number of suspensions as last qtr. Expected greater demand didn't materialize, working down inventories meant poor overhead absorbtion and mix shifts within TSA and to conv hurt ASPs. We don't know how much TSA inv was at customers after period of scarcity, but probably plenty. HTCH improving somewhat and expecting significant improvement next qtr. Tried you Excite voice. Seemed like a bad mobile connection with good periods. Someone said Yahoo might be better.