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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (23277)	6/22/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

MH, I agree. I just saw an ad for a laptop yesterday with EDO DRAM. I thought EDO was pretty much gone from any PC platform. But I'd guess that 75% to 80% market share is pretty comfortable (maybe 85% if we get lucky). Eventually the volume of SDRAM will be so low that only a couple manufacturers will make it and it won't be very profitable, but by then we'll probably be on the 2nd or 3rd generation of DRDRAM. Also, there will be older machines around for awhile (the CNBC guys just said yesterday that they have 286's under the desks) which will require the older versions of DRAM for a while. Just my guess, Dave <edit> Just read the rest of the posts. I think we'll do better than 50% share by the end of 2001 (run rate, that is; maybe 50% share for the year overall). And as REH mentioned, don't forget the ASIC/chipset royalties. One of the key points for growth beyond 2001/2002 is what else Rambus has in the pipeline -- if they just stay in the DRAM market, even if they replace their own technology, then they're eventually limited by the overall size of the DRAM market and it's growth, or shrinkage. If they're getting royalties on 80% of the market, but prices are plummeting, Rambus's revenues will also plummet. At some point, once they own the DRAM market, they also have to branch out their IP model to other markets. Hopefully they're thinking about that now.