Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (62801)	6/22/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 1571803

<When has future success been assured?> When Dirk Meyer holds a dinner presentation. ;-) Tenchusatsu

To: Elmer who wrote (62801)	6/22/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1571803

Elmer, Re:" When was there a time where there wasn't a crisis point on the horizon? When has future success been assured? This is the nature of the business." I agree with you that NO-ONES success is assured in hi-tech industry. But Intels stock is priced where any missteps will bring it crashing down. Intels lack of execution on its new CPU's and chipsets has not affected results yet. But as of Q4 when the PII core hits the brick wall their ASPs will suffer big time. The stock price in the $60 range requires a $2-3 earnings per share as the company has close to zero top line growth. In the next few quarters lack of newer high performance CPU's may well cut the net by as much as 50%. My point is not that this will happen, but that it may well happen and an Intel investor should not be buying looking at the excellent past performance the stock has given. It has been pointed out endlessly that for last 2 years sales growth and earnings and stock price growth has been anemic. At which point Intel investors like to pull out 5-10 year growth charts. The same logic applies to Compaq a once great company that had excellent returns over last 10 years. Last few years has been anemic. And I would suggest that the future for them is very grim unless they execute flawlessly again. The bottom line is that Intel is a high risk investment and certainly not one that can be put away for 3-5 years with the sure knowledge of long term appreciation. In fact I doubt that one can do that for any hi-tech company. Regards, Kash