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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A. Edwards who wrote (6796)	6/22/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: KENNETH DOAN	Respond to of 17183

for all long holders, if there are still anyone left. EMC Price Target < Back Next > Glossary What's the best guess for the stock price in 1-2 years? Investors fix targets for most stocks by estimating future earnings per share and then applying a price-to-earnings "multiple", also known as the P/E ratio. Companies with the most consistent earnings history or strongest growth prospects receive the highest P/E multiples. We calculate price targets for the current and next fiscal year by applying the stock's current multiple to the average professional analyst's estimate. Valuation using EMC's current multiple (P/E): Fiscal Year Est Low/High Price Range Avg. Est. Price % Change for Average 12/1999 $63.74-$70.45 $67.10 21.86% 12/2000 $83.20-$97.30 $87.23 58.42% EMC current price: $55.06 EMC current multiple (P/E): 67.10 EMC average 12/1999 estimate: $1.00 EMC low 12/1999 estimate: $0.95 EMC high 12/1999 estimate: $1.05 EMC average 12/2000 estimate: $1.30 EMC low 12/2000 estimate: $1.24 EMC high 12/2000 estimate: $1.45 What's the best guess for the stock if it were valued like its peers? Investors often come to believe that a stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to other stocks in its industrial group. To calculate an alternate target price for the current and next fiscal year based on those beliefs, investors can apply the average PE multiple for a company's industrial group to the average professional analyst's earnings estimate for the company in those periods. Valuation using the industry's current multiple (P/E): Fiscal Year Est. Price % Change 12/1999 NA NA 12/2000 NA NA EMC current price: $55.06 Data Storage Devices group current multiple (P/E): NA EMC average 12/1999 analyst estimate: $1.00 EMC average 12/2000 analyst estimate: $1.30 How certain is the price estimate? Investors estimate the level of unanimity about a stock's prospects among analysts by calculating the range between the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates. Average number of analysts covering EMC: 20 EMC analysts' high/low spread: 14% EMC analysts' confidence: High

To: A. Edwards who wrote (6796)	6/23/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17183

Dear Edwards and all: Gosh, if people are going to get scared and sell every company wherein they see competition I guess they will never own stocks in growing and profitable fields. Its the nature of the beast for others to move in the direction of a rapidly growing field. In my judgement one should focus on what EMC is doing and how they are executing. EMC has not backed off one iota from their growth forecast. In fact I think I saw it actually raised by someone to the 40% area. Will SUNW, IBM and others raise competition, of course they will. If they didnt it would indicate its a dying field. Will EMC thrive in the competition. Well, they certainly have in the past and they have a reputation of being aggressive. So, I am not worried. If there is a true loser in all this I think it will be HP. Now HP by their own design will be facing greater competion with a lesser product and likely less experienced sales and service force. Guess they will have to learn half a loaf is better than no loaf at all!!! As to latest stock price. Please review at least a week when talking about EMC. We had a rapid run up lately, I think its more profit taking than fright or anything like that. As to the year end price. Dont know what it will be but so long as EMC performs and it shows up on the top and bottom lines I see no reason why other companies press releases will hold EMC stock from achieving higher levels than indicated. JDN