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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (18233)	6/23/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Berney, Now taht's what I call an informative post !! Bet we would never get CNBC to be so factual. Jim

To: Berney who wrote (18233)	6/23/1999 4:55:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Berney, Excellent stats. The salient point there is...ALL stocks WILL go down. It's the ones that go up that are a rarity. Even though the press is hot on the winners, there's never enough mention of the losers. Some ideas based on thoroughly backtested scans that hit winners: Subject 28326 One warning...the MDA thread has a decided disdain for my work. This probably extends to the work done by the group I'm involved with. Sheesh...try to push the envelope and waddya get? lol!! Doug R

To: Berney who wrote (18233)	6/23/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Bananas! We don't need no stinkin' bananas! monkeydex.com -20% return since mid-April at initiation of MoneyDex internet portfolio. Annualized return -@#*~%

To: Berney who wrote (18233)	6/23/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Berney, <<Jim, The monkeys throwing darts must be having a tough time! Looking at 6,172 companies, 17.5% beat the Index for the 21% investment return, 14.8% provided a return between zero and the Index, and a Big 67.7% were negative for one year investment performance at May 31. While this is a slight improvement in the negative 71% at the end of February, it has got to lead one one to reflect on where the Bull is. Over 3 years, only 14.7% of the 5,269 companies beat the 27% return of the Index, while 44.9% were negative. Over 5 years, only 16.7% of the 4,165 companies beat the 25.9% return of the Index, while 31.8% were negative. In fact, the number of companies that have beat the Index over 3 and 5 years has declined since February. It is a tough bull!>> this is exactly what the poor a/d line has been telegraphing ever since it peaked about 14 months ago. what does it signify? it's saying that we are very late in the game. similar divergences between the a/d line and the indices were observable in '29 and '87. i know i sound like a broken record here, but the a/d line, money fleeing into the utilities and the disparity between the Fed's market valuation model and the market's actual value are warning signs par excellence. i won't even mention the ratio of bullish to bearish advisors..(oops, i just did!). so even though i believe the market may well blow off to new highs from here (mind you i'm not certain), i just know the party is going to be over soon. regards, hb