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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mel221 who wrote (1307)6/23/1999 1:51:00 AM
From: RC Stein  Respond to of 18137
 
This is my personal opinion, and its probably worth just what you're paying for it. First there is NO SHORTCUT. You are not going to quickly learn what Steve(Pala alto Trader), Eric, Alan, Richard Estes and others have learned. When you read their posts, quite often they will say they are still learning themselves. But, here are some suggestions....
(1) Keep reading everything you can get your hands on, and then re-read it including various threads on SI.
(2) Subscribe to STOCKS AND COMMODITIES magazine. Lots of good info and education in it.
(3) Go to the Pristine Daytrader site, www.pristine.com , and read the free education, print it out and re-read if you want to. Give some consideration to signing up for the Pristine Lite newsletter daily picks. Twenty bucks a month, and worth every penny. Good picks and they try and teach you as they go.
(4) PAPER TRADE for at least 3, maybe 6 months and do it seriously so that it will be a learning experience.
(5) Position trade (swing trade, short term trade) for at least 6 months before you start trying to day trade. If you don't understand position trading, there is a good chance that you will get killed trying to day trade. When I'm talking about day trading, I'm talking about getting in and out in a few minutes and being happy with 1/4 or
1/2 point, not buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon and trying to pick up a couple of points. Everyone seems to have different explanations of what day trading is.
(6) Learn everything you can about TA(technical analysis), if you are going to do short term trading, you have GOT to understand charts and indicators or you're dead meat.
Like I said this is just one persons opinion, but welcome to the group, and good luck with your education and trades. You're gonna love it...
Richard St.



To: mel221 who wrote (1307)6/23/1999 2:42:00 AM
From: -  Respond to of 18137
 
Mike,

Your thoughtful post begs for a more detailed and lengthy response than I can provide tonight. First, I should direct you to Richard St's excellent reply (#1309) which I agree with wholeheartedly. Pristine [no affiliation, except they've become highly respected professional acquaintances] is IMO the best place in the nation to study stock trading. Greg, Oliver, and Dan are a class act, "the real deal" -- they are focused on earnestly helping and teaching their students (I was one of them, including 1:1 training 5 years back). "Pristine Lite" is a steal at $20/month. Also I'd encourage you to study Jeff Cooper's book, Larry Williams, and many of the other classics mentioned on thread (e.g. there is quite a collection of good books listed, just between pristine.com and intelligentspeculator.com).

I tend to agree that it's best to start with some position-trading experience, of course the problem there is that can be disastrous to the equity curve. So, many choose to start with daytrading or scalping, which in theory at least allows you to tightly control risk (more true after you gain experience, than at the start).

I suppose you think I'm going to tell you that there is no "short cut", no "easy way". To some degree that's true, but as a fellow engineer and pragmatic businessperson, I don't really sense that's what you're after. Rather, what you want is to determine the optimum learning curve to go down, to avoid wasting your time, to avoid spending time in too many dark alleys. That is a good idea which I can relate to, because there are a lot of them in this business! If you take a look at my Bio over on tigerinvestor.com, you can get a sense of the number of false starts and unproductive paths I've endured. That is because by nature, I felt compelled to try virtually every trading style, every market, every indicator, every trading system, every seminar, software package, etc. However, there is an easier/better/more efficient way to learn. My way was the way I "had" to learn, and it worked for me. But, it is NOT the optimum (most efficient) way to learn!

If you can zero in on a trading style that you want to master - and not deviate from that while you learn - e.g. (I would recommend this one) daytrading stocks intraday (no overnights; 5 second to 30 minute holds) - that will simplify your learning curve substantially. Say, leave multi-day swing trading to later, and learn how to daytrade first: save two years. Skip position trading? Save one year. Skip lightning-quick scalp trading? Save six months. You get the idea - focus on one style that fits you, and you can get there quicker. I'm not really recommending that you should start with daytrading; you have to pick what really fits your personality, which can be tough to figure out without substantial "seasoning". If you're short on time, maybe swing-trading or position-trading would be best. This is something to give a lot of thought to.

Once you've identified your style (which can be harder than it sounds), then you want to focus on learning from the best teachers. That's what I did, otherwise you'll have to figure it all out by yourself, which could take as long as an entire lifetime (with no guarantees of success). It depends on your natural abilities, aptitudes, and inclinations.

But any way you go, you have to be prepared for quite a learning curve. Some traders become pretty good after a few months, others (like me) struggle for years before hitting stride. If you are one of the lucky ones and it comes easier to you, if probably means you are pragmatic, don't over-analyze, and are decisive, acting readily "in the moment" on rules and logic learned from others - not of your own invention, or necessarily agreeing with your "gut". Very few of us are lucky enough to arrive in that mode right as we enter this very difficult business of trading!

Anyway not to discourage you, the learning curve to profitability in straight day-trading with Level II can be as short as 2 months for some fortunate individuals. Don't make it more complicated than it needs to be. Paper trade, and trade SMALL at first. Watch your equity curve. And realize, this is NOT a road to quick money and easy riches - it is really a new career. As ISpec says, it's just like any other job, except you pay to come to this one ;)

Good trading, -Steve



To: mel221 who wrote (1307)6/23/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: wallstreeter  Respond to of 18137
 
ok guys i got a question. When daytrading how do we use an overlay of the 1 ,3, or 5 minute moving average to help us generate a shorter(one minute) or a longer(5minute) buy signal and vice versa with shorting.
I just read barry rudds chart patterns for daytrading and in this book he primarily focuses on short term breakout out of tight and long(30 minute to 3 hours consolidation) at resistance or support levels that could have gone back at least a day or 2. The longer the consolidation the more favorable and positive the buy signal would be.
How would i interject these moving averages into this style of daytrading to give me a buy or sell signal?
thanks
wallstreeter



To: mel221 who wrote (1307)6/23/1999 4:18:00 AM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 18137
 
Hi; As an engineer, I had the same response to trading that you did. With engineering, if you have a 60% success rate with your projects, you are quite a hazard to the company.

For a mathematical type, the secret to overcoming this alteration in work behavior is statistics.

Also, I would like to point out that during your learning years, you should trade much less than 100 shares on those longer term trades. I don't know what the other guys have in mind when they tell you to trade small, but I would go with 5 shares. This is enough that there is a chance you might cover your commissions, but not enough to cause any sort of emotional responses to your situation. Just remember to ignore the money, if you can, and don't minimize your effort to make your trading better merely because you are only trading 5 shares. This needs to be a game, but it needs to be a serious game, played by the rules, played with care and thought, and played as hard as possible.

Towards that end, when learning, always calculate your gains and losses on a per share basis. Keep track of your wins and losses by the day and week, and categorize your trades. This will put you into a mindset that should be similar to the situation you will someday be in when you try to steal money from the other guys.

Be creative. Experiment. Learn not to pick tops (or bottoms). But make it a hobby until you have mathematically proved your skill.

Later, when it seems that you are regularly making a good number of cents per share, go big. Play 10 shares per trade. You will have many false starts. Go back to 5 shares when these happen. When you are finally, really, a decent 5 share trader, go to 10 shares, and keep on increasing as long as things are working.

P.S. I Don't believe most of the tales of traders who average $5 per share per trade. My observation is that they must be extremely rare. Warren Buffet probably does it, but he holds for very very long times. The vast majority of professional traders that hold less than 3 days or so earn an average of less than a dollar per share, my guess, assuming they are trading big boys. As a scalper, I count it a great day when I bring in 10 cents per share. The street is very smart, and doesn't leave low-hanging fruit out where it is easy to collect. This is not the South Pacific. Others comment on these outrageous statements?

P.P.S: For the mathematically inclined, the proper way to scale a random walk with time is by the square root. Consequently, I would expect something like the following table of typical average stock profits over various time frames for good traders (trading something with volatility between DELL and MSFT):

10 minutes: 1/16
40 minutes: 1/8
160 minutes: 1/4 (2 hours, 40 minutes)
640 minutes: 1/2 (1.6 days)
2560 minutes: $1 (6.6trading days)

In other words, in order to be averaging a profit of $1 per share on MSFT, you probably need to be thinking in terms of holding about a week or so.

Naturally, stocks move more than the above table would imply. But remember that you will not be always on the correct side of the trade, buying the lows and selling the highs. Fortunately, in order to make a good living, performing such a miracle is unnecessary. The above guide would have to be scaled according to the volatility (not the price) of the stock you trade. In addition, these are intended to be what you should hope your average can attain, not where you should exit your profitable trades.

Again, I know that the above targets will seem very small to those with grand dreams (AKA greed) and low computational skills. The fact is, that only God knows the future of security prices. Note that the above numbers are relatively small compared to the natural volatility of the stocks. For this reason, your trades will show a very high standard deviation compared to your (presumed positive) average return. This is normal (pun). This is why you will need to generate lots of statistics (i.e. trades) before you can reject the null hypothesis of random chance. There are plenty of examples of traders who beat the averages for a while, overtraded, and burned out their account.

Also, my suggestion for a 5 share initial trade size for longer term trades would scale as one over the square root for shorter time scales. Thus, you are allowed to trade larger share size on the shorter time scales, as they have less random walk risk. Here is a table of suggested beginner share sizes. Again, the stocks are assumed to be something like DELL/MSFT:

10 minutes: 100
40 minutes: 50
160 minutes: 25 (2 hours, 40 minutes)
640 minutes: 10 (1.6 days)
2560 minutes: 5 (6.6trading days)

I know that everybody who reads this is going to laugh, but this is the way it is. So pros, give me some backing...

-- Carl



To: mel221 who wrote (1307)6/23/1999 6:56:00 AM
From: Eric P  Respond to of 18137
 
There is a good amount of information in this tread. I can read it and study it. How do I condition myself to use this information.

Tough question. I suggest you read through the thread summary links over and over again, as well as keep a traders log/diary to record your trading successes and mistakes. Ultimately, you will learn for yourself what seems to work for you, and what seems to fail. I believe, the only way you will 100% trust something is to see it for yourself. However, by reviewing the lessons that others have experienced, you may be a 'quick learner' and not need to pay numerous tuition fees (i.e. losses) to learn the same lesson for yourself.

Eric has created the thread summary and this is very helpful. What I need is a blueprint for building my trading foundation.

Try reading the last post from Taf's 'Keep Your Eye of the Ball' thread: #Subject-22743

Thanks for the great post and new trader perspective! You have generated some very good discussion. I hope it helps to answer your questions.

-Eric



To: mel221 who wrote (1307)11/28/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: Eric P  Respond to of 18137
 
Mike:

I was re-reading posts from the thread summary tonight and came across your very thoughtful post regarding your learning curve as a developing trader. I see that you are mainly a lurker, but perhaps you might be able to share with us a brief update of your progress since your previous update. What are some of the lessons you have learned which might be valuable to other developing traders? Are their any problems or questions that you've found especially difficult and we might be able to help guide you through?

Good luck,
-Eric