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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Call Me Krazy who wrote (8564)	6/23/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Some thoughts on strategy. . . . First, to Call Me Krazy. . . MLG is a "me too" E-commerce. I don't have much faith in that market at this time. . . also, they are heavy with mall based retail stores that drag down their bottom line. . .as the world shifts away from mall shopping toward convenience and superstores. Lately, E-commerce sites have not generated as much excitement. They are certainly a bargain at these prices. . .but I am a bit prejudiced. . . as a kid. . I gave Musicland every opportunity to sell me their records. . .but nearly 90 percent of the time, NRMI [National Record Mart] got my business. . . .due either to selection, price or service. So that may figure into my perception of MLG. Much as we try to be objective about stocks. . .we never really can. As the Nasdaq turns green today, I am noting that some of the "second-tier" internets have heated up today. . . leading me to wonder if some fund managers are jumping in there. . . .DCLK [the leader] is down, whereas TFSM and ADFC [both much smaller companies in same sector] are up. Likewise, SEEK, MSPG and EXDS are up. MIPS is unstopable. . . I am looking for more yet. Some Inets and High-Techs we need to look at for entry on next pull back include: HLTH [leader], CMGI [I like possible AltaVista buyout for big IPO as they are a top ten site], GNET [like chasing a helium balloon], QWST [as they keep making acquisitions their price just keeps dropping. . . at the current rate, they will be in the pennies by Labor Day <g> . . .also they are rapidly becoming the CLEAR leader of fibre optics and that will attract winter seasonal big money fund manager entries. TUNE in low 20's, I'd like some more please. SGI is the sleeper stock of the year, in my opinion. I see it going to 30 by January. . . despite it's past financial problems. . . their investments alone are worth the price of admission. Check them out sometime for a real eye opener. INTC likewise has some terrific investments and are far more than a chip maker. T is T. It appears that unless they get slammed by Barrons or some other publication. . . .they have bottomed in the mid to low 50's. I am still waiting. . .as I believe that the big money KNOWS their real value. . . but wants them in the mid 40's. . . so I fully expect some T bashing to become popular in the next month or two. LMG.a is worthy of re-entry, but tends to track T. HRBC could become a high-flier next season, in my opinion. . . OMKT could too. . . but there is something peculiar about the trading and the subtle hype around the net that I don't trust. . . so I am always VERY cautious about this one. . .and always keep an eye on the door. QCOM I believe will still pull way back this summer. . . so I am waiting for that before jumping back in. . .I want it in the mid-80's again. . .but will pay into mid-90's if need be. . . otherwise, risk is too high. CNET, to me, is the key to the CNET/XMCM/NBC Snap broadband joint venture. SEEK is an enigma. They caught it from DIS. Their combo deal should be attracting much attention. . . but their passions are divided. SEEK is using their R and D to develop their Express search product. . .and Disney is trying to figure out what to do about those foreign amusement parks. . .while they wonder what they want to be now that they are grown up. . . a film maker? an amusement park? and how can the interactive internet be exploited to the fullest? [one would think they would be the leader here, but they are not and that disappoints me]. . . so while both companies are occupied. . .who is minding the store? Has GO's get-up and go got up and gone? The jury is still out on these two issues. . .I welcome debate. EXDS, NXTL and some smaller communications firms are calling back. But I am waiting for another pullback here, too. DCLK, ATHM, TUNE, GIC, TERN, SGI and my favorite. . MIPS. . positions have already been taken recently. . . among others. Our sleepy positions are holding their values nicely thru summer doldrums so far. . . BDE, BND, UOLP, ROSI [big move today], ARTT, RDOC, IRSN and pennies PLCOP, AFPC, USTI. . . all doing fine. . . NOW. . . Abby Joseph Cohen is slated to speak to CNBC on market direction AFTER market close. So what are they chances that she will be bullish? I am doubtful and am anticipating a bearish near-term stance. . . .I am also confident that her words will have a major effect on the market Thursday and into Friday. . . so brace yourselves. . . I don't think we will see the lows of three weeks ago. . .but it should set up some nice buying ops, in my opinion. I do believe in TA and technical indicators, and use them often for entry and exit points. . . . but INCREASINGLY. . market sentiment, media hype [up or down] and investor perception are the engines that drive the market BEYOND resistance and support levels. Rande Is