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Technology Stocks : Log On America, Inc. LOAX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ron Dior who wrote (219)6/23/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: ISP_Investor  Respond to of 353
 
No real deal here. I just got excited when I finally found a security worth shorting in this market and felt confident (too much confidence is poison though, so I'll probably stop looking at the stock for a few months and put some stops in on both sides).

I had another company called All-Pro Sports that I did a lot of research on and didn't short it and the company that was once at $13 became a penny stock. They were doing a great combination of multi-media development and a sports drink. Lawrence Taylor- the football player was a significant driver of the business. I didn't short it because it was dropping too quickly and I've been kicking myself ever since. That is the key reason, why I have been so bearish on the stock. The key thing in long-term investing is conviction and a willingness to trust your own judgment. I post the information I find to see if someone will contradict it so I can make sure I am on the right track. If someone came out and said that Nortel was investing 5M in the company, that would contradict the research I had done and would necessitate further research. If someone said they could get into ten markets and own their own DSL equipment for under 20M, that would contradict my research and give me add'l data points to make decisions.

I may be dead wrong and have my tail handed to me via a wildly successful execution of LOAX's business plan. If they did two things I would run like a scalded pig to cover my short 1) Made a few key hires of some jaw-dropping managers on the executive team and 2) Lined up financing via a large debt offering, equip financing, or another slug of equity to fund the rest of their business plan

I'll go long LOAX in a heartbeat when I feel like the long-term opportunity is there. Any data pointing in that direction or otherwise is appreciated.



To: Ron Dior who wrote (219)6/23/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: ISP_Investor  Respond to of 353
 
Ron- Also- I don't worry about the price of the stock (.20 per share vs. $100 per share) I'm much more focused on market valuation (30M vs. 100M). And I don't like shorting stocks that are difficult to value on a comparable basis. (I shorted CUST and covered because the only comparables I could find on the company weren't similar enough to say the stock was truly overvalued or undervalued. I made money, but not because I had an understanding of the true valuation, just blind luck and moving stops around as the company fell in price.)

Also- I would never short a stock that didn't have enough volume in it because in the short run, you could really get squeezed. If I ever felt that something on one of these boards impacted the price of the stock, I'd get out immediately as the company could just as easily release a press release and run the stock to the moon. Look what Jeff Vinik did (or was rumored to do) yesterday to Rambus(I think it was rambus). He squeezed a few folks.

If LOAX goes to 30 or 40 per share or 3-4 per share, I won't worry too much as I have stops in on both sides that should be hit on the way up or down that would keep any emotions or biases I have from eating into my acct. What is your long-term and short term outlook for LOAX?