To: fiberman who wrote (219 ) 6/23/1999 1:21:00 PM From: M. Frank Greiffenstein Respond to of 422
Great Minds Think... Check out this article from JJ Cramer, go to the end. JJC explains why this rumor is so believable: It mentions a specific price (and now you know how to make a believable rumor!!) Before I post the article, here is my game plan: (1) Wait for the rumor to really juice up the price, say into the mid 30's (2) Write the Dec 40 calls, now priced at about $4 so should be 8-9 by that time. If the rumor turns out to be false, the options you sold will collapse asnd you make a juicy profit. Of the rumor is true, but buyout price is less then $48, options may expire close to worthless. You make out again! If rumor is exactly true, you may still make a few extra bucks over buyout price, or at the worst, lose 1-2 bucks of profit. Anyway, here is the article: I just threw in the towel on Qwest (QWST:Nasdaq). Enough is enough. Can't take it any more. I have been riding this one high since Jim Seymour first turned me on to it, one of a half dozen huge winners that Seymour has pointed me toward in his must-read column. At his prompting, I caught more than a double and I am thrilled with Seymour. However, I am not thrilled with Qwest. First of all, I am a trader. Therefore I am never stupid enough to bid against myself, as Qwest did. I come up with a price I am willing to pay and I then don't say, "Hey, let me up my bid" after I have said that's all I want to pay. Second, I think this move, as well as the earlier bids, shows tremendous contempt for the shareholders. Maybe the Qwest management club thinks this is a private company with some bozo tagalongs like me that they can shaft all they want. Fine. But I am voting with my feet. Let someone else play the role of the bozo tagalong. Finally -- and this is the main reason why I am throwing in the towel -- U S West (USW:NYSE) shouldn't even be the darn object of a takeover bid. It just ain't worth it. Global Crossing (GBLX:Nasdaq) shouldn't have made the starting bid in the first place, and Qwest certainly shouldn't have gotten involved after. I thought these companies were smarter than this. Oh, sure, U S West has some DSL lines, blah, blah, blah. But give me a break. U S West is such a crummy company. I don't want to own it. I want to beat it. I was hoping Qwest would let Global blow itself up by doing this merger. Now Global is getting Qwest to commit financial suicide with its topper bid. Maybe if the target were Bell Atlantic (BEL:NYSE), with its huge mass, we could have something worth hocking a company to the gills for. That would be a transforming merger worth betting the company on. But not U S West, a second-rate Baby Bell from day one. Jeeeshhh! If I were Global, I would walk away from this fiasco so fast Jack Grubman's head would spin. Both bids are lunacy, something dreamed up in order to generate huge fees and pump up already outsized egos. I don't know which bid is more valuable, but I am quite sure that Qwest gets the nod for the more stupid of the two. What a shame. Random musings: I see, the new trick with these rumored acquisitions is not just getting the takeover right. We now get the price down, too! So Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) is allegedly bidding $48 for Beyond.com (BYND:Nasdaq). That price specificity is simply irresistible to most traders. I sure hope that BusinessWeek gets into that price specificity. Can you imagine how many shares K Mart (KM:NYSE) insiders could have unloaded if BW had simply said it was going to be a $23 bid from Safeway (SWY:NYSE) instead of that nebulous bid talk. Memo to journalists/rumormongers: If analysts can dream up ridiculous target prices, you can certainly come up with some decent bid prices. Garrett Von Waggoner Alert. This fun-loving small-cap manager loves to hype his tiniest, thinnest names on air. Today he is on CNBC. Be careful out there. DocStone