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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (18289)	6/23/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: Follies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, You are on to something here. I believe the fed doesn't lead the bond market, it follows it. In the VERY short run it can have an affect but over time market forces are bigger than the fed. Dale

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (18289)	6/23/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

screening of day traders? latimes.com

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (18289)	6/23/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, i have read an interesting theory by a guy who's concentrating on cycles...he says that often when cycles end (as the current 9-month cycle is scheduled to do around july 7), liquidity in one of the various asset classes dries unexpectedly up. while he's currently a proponent of stock market liquidity drying up in this cycle, his alternative scenario calls for a crash in the bond market.btw, i agree that the 'big money' is reluctant to fund the bond side of things as long as rates are so low. corporate debt and household debt have increased dramatically in recent years, and that has skewed the risk profile of fixed income securities in general. an economic slowdown could lead to massive private sector defaults...that's when demand for treasuries will truly revive. regards, hb

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (18289)	6/23/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Jim: I posted at the beginning of the year, the TYX put in a significant bottom on Oct 5, 1998. However, I still believe we will see a pullback on the TYX and that will provide a last gasp for the Bull. Of course, I could be wrong, so I am in protection mode for now. In addition, as stated in my post around the first of the year, competition for US Bond investors would result in higher interest rates for US Treasuries. I expected Japanese interest rates to begin to increase and would begin to attract and repatriate increasing amounts of overseas Japanese wealth as part of their efforts to fund a recovery. I am not sure of the exact amount, but I believe the Japanese two-year note has gone up around 300% in the last couple of weeks. Still low if compared to US rates, but a large increase just the same... Regards, LG