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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marconi who wrote (1514)	6/23/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: Sid Turtlman	Respond to of 10293

Marconi: re: inverters. I agree - I thought that $4000 figure seemed a bit steep, but even $1000 that you suggest is a huge figure for a component that is a small part of the entire fuel cell system for generating electricity from natural gas. The reformer, which is the component that extracts hydrogen from ng could easily be several thousand dollars. And in order to meet a house's peak needs, without using a fuel cell that is too big, the Plug Power (MKTY) system needs a hefty battery as well. All that is before the cost of the fuel cell itself. I am not against fuel cells - I am actually quite bullish on their prospects for stationary power, and am long a bunch of ERC. But I think they only make economic sense in much larger sizes than the single household level - at least 250 kW, and even more so 1 MW or above, as opposed to the 7 kW individual household size that MKTY is aiming at. Compared to what is needed for a 250 kW fuel cell, almost every component will cost a lot more than 7/250ths as much. My other point is that a lot of the components of the system already exist as established, mass produced products. Whatever inverters go for now, the price reflects a large production level. If demand were to increase as a result of mass production of home size fuel cells, it is unlikely that unit costs would drop much at all. That is true of many other components, like wires, sheet metal, pipes, etc. The assumption on the part of MKTY bulls that costs will plummet with higher production is true of only part of the complete system.