Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (40912)	6/23/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, i don't know for sure, of course; admittedly this mania has surprised the bears over and over and may continue to do so for a while. intraday today the t-bond yield/stock dividend yield ratio has hit a new all-time high of 4,93 (t-bond yld.=6,133, SPX yld.=1,245), the a/d line has peaked 14 months ago, the ratio of bullish to bearish advisors is scraping 12-year highs...the air is getting thinner, know what i mean? that's what my 'last hurrah' remark is based on. the only reason why i'm not sure, is that nobody knows how far the mania may carry the market. this is in fact the only bullish argument that has any weight imo. it's quite possible that during the blow-off stage a sharp and swift 10% correction makes the bears feel like their day is at hand only to see the market reverse back up again; i can certainly imagine that it's going to be a wild ride, but i don't see it last beyond '99. if it lasts longer than 4 months from today, it will beat the previous record for a/d-line to mania peak set in the 20's. since every other record of excess in terms of variables describing the market's valuation has already been beaten, it is possible for this record to be surpassed as well. nevertheless, the market faces a looming deadline in the form of Y2K. it doesn't really matter whether the Y2K event as such will turn out to be harmless or not. there will be a rush for the exit because of it anyway. Ed Yardeni, who has been correctly bullish for years has put it very nicely: "the onus of proof has shifted to the bulls". it has indeed. far be it from me to advise anyone to bet against the mania; the study of historic examples shows clearly that the final advances are often the most stunning, and therefore most damaging for the shorts. just as long as everybody knows we're in GAGA-land, as Haim has put it. regards, hb