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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Enigma who wrote (1263)	6/23/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: Exsrch	Respond to of 3558

Double D, Any insights as to time horizen for that value to be realized. I have no guess; however, it seems that investors long on ABX are probably going to have to stay disciplined for a while. I might suggest two things that could yield shareholder value: - Increase in AU price (that's an easy one) - ABX consolidating the gold producers I'd like to see ABX increase their yearly production capacity to 8 to 12 million onces per year. Thats the kinda of growth I hope Peter Munk is talking about when he speaks of "new era of growth". Some kick ass differentiated growth strategy in an enviornment where no one else is thinking growth. The stage is set. ABX books record growth, cash flow, profits, strong capex and exploration (not to mention strong depreciation for lower future total production cost) while it's peer group suffers the inverse of ABX's benefits. I estimate the potential for ABX to have $1 billion in cash by Dec 99 for a total of $2.5 billion total in its war chest by fiscal year end ($1 billion cash+1.5 billion credit). All this while NEM losing almost $2 billion in market cap (currently $3 billion market cap). Although ABX is losing ground on market cap also, they continue to strengthen their balance sheet. Clearly ABX has the ability to buy NEM today. I think they'll be smart and wait for things to get worse (if it does get worse? wild card). An added benefit is ABX can cherry pick the best projects. Where are the juniors or explorations companies going to go if they want their project funded or bought out. Only time will tell; however, at this point ABX seems like a good risk. Other perspective are welcome. Cheers, Exsrch