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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (18328)	6/23/1999 6:38:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, re: gold stocks, i agree with you that they are worth a look here, if only for the fact that they are probably the most unloved sector of this market.i hold some gold stocks as a hedge and found the divergence of the XAU and the price of gold to be a somewhat encouraging sign. also the amount of negative publicity throughout the various media speaks for the possibility of a revival of gold at some point in the second half of the year. however, while the XAU has managed to bounce repeatedly off an important trend line, the chart formation looks suspiciously like a bearish flag. it will take a few good days to negate it. since the funds as well as the small traders hold near-record net short positions in the gold contract according to the cftc report, we may well get those few good days. i used to trade gold shares in Johannesburg, which at times were making moves that would even put the nutz to shame. to anyone who's looking for truly speculative stuff in the area of gold, i advise to check out the south african marginal producers. you get bang for your buck there, if and when the gold price moves up. sort of like options sans expiration date. regards, hb PS: i agree with your expectation of a 1/4 point hike and a continued tightening bias.