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Non-Tech : Valley Media (VMIX) IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shtirlitz who wrote (216)	6/23/1999 9:00:00 PM
From: Phantom Dialer	Respond to of 298

News out of Robbie Stevens...this came out at 2:06 PM today (I am summarizing) Rating - Long Term Attractive Estimates for 2000 = $.60 by Q--> (.10)(.01).59 .12 Estimates for 2001 = $1.00 by Q--> .02 .02 .71 .24 REVS Year2000- by Q 179, 199.1, 331.4, 287.9 = 997.5 Year2001 by Q 213.1, 228.4, 375.0, 335.0 = 1,151 3 Yr EPS Growth Rate 30% book Value $8.27 ROA for Y2000E = 11.2% ROI for Y2000E = 13.4% -RS believe the Valley Media story will take longer to develop but feel VM's New Media represents a tremendous opportunity. -VM posseses 70% of the market on a wholesale basis not to mention first mover status. -Expect 50% CAGR in New Media biz -Internet Revs ALONE could hit $1 BILLION in 2003, equiv to the 99 Revenue base -As deep catalog fulfillment beomces more important to companies like AMZN VM's role in the supply chain will only increase and strengthen -the warehouse has been moved and is operating today. The do not believe warehouses will have to be moved again--the location is very scalable and the move was the right decision for VM, and positions the co better to serve customers. -Customers turn to VM for accurate fill rates, on time delivery and unrivaled breadth of product offerings. As such they will maintain their domainant market position -Applying a 1x rev mulitple in 2000 the stocks market cap would be $429 million almost triple its current level. -Continue to believe that shares will garner a 22.5x multiple of calender 2000 Esstimates of 88 cents over next 12 -18 mos. -Attractive opportunity for long term investors FINALLY, and these 2 quotes REALLY caught my eye: "Importantly we believe no competitor can match Valley's inventory, fill rates or service levels. These factors should continue to differentiate the company, solidfy barriers to entry and sustain profitability. These are major factors supporting our bullish outlook for the shares." "Management estimates that nearly 100% of ALL DVD sold over the Internet came thought Valley's warehouses" ---------------------------------------- I am willing to bet that while "fools" sold the stock to $14 1/2, Robbie was scooping up shares...I am hoping JP Morgan comes out with some thing too. Can you believe it?--100% of all DVD and that market is growing as FAST as the internet! Tommorow should be interesting with the press release we had tonight...its a GREAT sign they are going to use diigtal as well. Phantom

To: Shtirlitz who wrote (216)	6/23/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: Paul Hackett	Respond to of 298

Excellent find on the Rob-Stephens revised estimates, Phantom. Here's some background info. on Amplified.com from their web-site: >>>amplified.com, the world's first business to business digital music wholesaler, provides leading music affiliates with a customized digital music service, including both digital download and custom CD compilations. With over 100,000 songs licensed in 17 genres and approximately 7,500 songs available for purchase, amplified.com boasts the largest selection of secure song files available for download on the Internet. amplified.com emerged from MultiPreviews, Inc., in early 1998 with a capital infusion from Noro-Moseley venture capital partners and Philips Electronics. Philips is eighth on Fortune's list of global top 30 electronics corporations and are active in about 80 businesses varying from consumer electronics to domestic appliances, and from security systems to semiconductors. In MultiPreviews, Philips recognized the Company's Internet music expertise as an important ingredient in its plans to increase sales of CD-Recorders and other products.<<< Also Amplified.com has 15 employees, I would imagine that all operations will move to Valley's Woodland distribution warehouse. There is plenty of room for them. I briefly looked at Amplified's pop rock music selection, scanning the artists from A through D. I didn't recognize too many artists except for Glen Campbell (2 songs). Of course there was Dead Eye Dick and Dash Rip Rock, but these are not what you would call artists with a broad range of appeal to the mass markets. And the Rhinestone Cowboy hasn't had a hit since......I can't remember. I don't think digital downloading is going to overtake conventional Internet CD sales anytime in the near future. A complete line of artists, full albums and current songs will have to be available for easy and fast download before it becomes a significant threat. Although I think it is very good news that Valley does recognize the potential of the digital distribution of music and is preparing for the future. In the short term, I think Amplified.com has a lot more to gain from this potential deal than Valley Media esp. considering Valley's partnerships with Amazon.com, CDNow, Virgin, etc.