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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lars who wrote (6231)	6/24/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Lars: Re: "Also, I have talked with two people in the last week who are putting off plans to build homes. This, IMHO, has a significant effect on our economy. I wonder how many other people are rethinking. The comment I hear is "...we should have acted sooner." I just don't see how we are going to have multiple rate increases." Yo, yo Lars. Get the word out. The Fed. does not have to tighten more than once because the long bond increase to 6.15% plus is starting to cause immediate pain as you noted. The longer this Fed. dance goes on, the more the risks will shift towards a recession nine months out. Then we all will be worrying about the earnings again. This whole will-they-or-won't-they game is a riot. It is going to happen. It will be .25. It will not be .50 in one move. That is not "modest" according to my Greenspaeak translator ($24.95 -- dial justabid.com at (800) RATES UP; use you justabid Visa and get a promotional rate of 50% compounded daily) is .25. Nobody knows for sure if they will have to do more, not even Greenspan. That is the deal period. End of story. The Green man is going to slow this sucker down unless the overseas markets buckle again in the face of rising rates. He will do it alone or the bond market will do his work for him. He does not care if he does it or the market does it. But the slowing may come sooner than we all think because the risks are now shifting as this game continues.