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Gold/Mining/Energy : Manhattan Minerals (MAN.T) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (2479)	6/24/1999 12:12:00 AM
From: TrueScouse	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4504

Mark: <<My 5 bucks was based on finding nothing more at TG1>> I agree that $5 is not such a bad estimate, but only if you accept that nothing more will be found at TG1, nor on any of the other anomalies, and if you accept that the current low valuations will continue indefinitely. This is highly unlikely, IMHO, given what we already know. We have to keep this thing in perspective and look at what MAN really has sitting under the ground. Thanks to a spreadsheet which Krikor sent me, at current prices, the cash value of MAN's share of the metals in TG1 is about $2.99 Billion (Can) -- or over $100 per share. If we put only a 5 percent valuation on this enormous deposit, it works out at $5.39 (Can) per share. This is why the price shot up to $7 this week. The institutional investors and majors know that this is a very low risk play at these prices. If you increase the valuation above the minimal figure of 5 percent -- if you increase the cash price of the metals above the miserable 20-year low current levels -- if you increase the size of the TG1 deposit by a few million tons -- and if you add in only one more anomaly out of the several which are highly prospective -- then you get a huge potential increase. This is what the "big money" is seeing -- very little downside risk and big upside potential. Also, from a technical perspective, the major resistance is now at around the $5.50 level. I'd be very surprised to see it go below that. If Elizabeth wants to short into this environment, that's up to her. IMO the more players the more liquid (and therefore the healthier) the market. But I'm surprised that an experienced shorter wishes to assume this much risk for a potential reward of maybe a dollar a share. Just my 2 dollars <g>. Howy