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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter S. who wrote (13432)	6/24/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

A few points: S3 and Diamond can scream "business as usual" all they want. It aint gonna happen. This is like trying to have friendly break up with your girlfriend and still go out together on Friday nights. Why in the world would you support your competitor? This goes for both S3 and their board makers. It'll be "business as usual" until one side can transition to "business unusual". I will not buy NVDA now. But the uncertainity will surround them and eventually they will sell off. That is when you should buy NVDA. I wouldn't bet on 75% fall. About 30~40% will do. nVidia will not have to wait for Creative to buy them out. Creative needs nVidia more than the other way around. Knowing nVdia's cuningness, they will milk every opportunity for what it's worth and then some. Also, nVidia will has the option of buying a board maker themself (what will Creative do then?). But again, knowing nVidia, they will enjoy their current position as the supplier to many board makers, rather than go through the trouble. So Trident makes their own chips. So what? So did Hercules and a host of others in the past. Within 3 years, there won't be any 2D chips and the price of NV10 class chips will be so low then that even if there are cheap 2Ds, who'd buy them. Can Trident and the like put up the R&D to develop such chips? Or will they drop their products in favor of someone else's? Or will they drop out of the graphics business? BTW, the accelerated consolidation is good for every remaining player and not just nvidia. This includes 3dfx and ATI. Chances are, that if you make a portfolio of all main 5 players, 3 years from now you will be very happy, even if one or two of your choices fumble. ST