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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Smith who wrote (8622)	6/24/1999 1:50:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Joe, When will the analysts change their ratings? Who knows? As a guess I might expect something from BA Robt. Step. or Morgan Stan. Both downgraded on 5/22/98. That's the day the stock crashed from near $60 to below $30. If anyone sold near $30 then buying back now at $12 1/2 or so would seem OK. Keep in mind though that when a stock really tanks and analysts must rush to respond with a downgrade, I would guess they might feel burned by the co. ie - Why didn't they give us any indications along the way. As they say - burned once, twice shy. They may be reluctant to revisit the stock. I wouldn't expect to see an upgrade soon from BT Alex. They last upgraded the stock on 3/27/98 - it closed around $50 that day (up on the upgrade)but they did not downgrade it until 1/19/99 when it was near $10. Heaven help you if you bought and sold following them. I would never tell you or anyone else what to do, but IMHO, if you want to play turnaround situations follow these guidelines: 1. Don't catch the falling knife - wait until the stock bases for a while - and preferably, when it trends sideways with little volitility and stops reacting to bad news. Then get ready to buy. (note: A sharp fall, followed by further falls and a long bottom base are important because you want time for all those people who bought higher to bail out. If they do not, then you have a situation with "overhead supply" - people just waiting for the stock to come up a little so they can get out even - and that hampers the stock's rise.) 2. Watch for signs of changes in fundamentals - restructuring, cost cutting, new products, new CEO etc. And look for a upturn in the stock chart. 3. Buy when the stock starts to breakout, watch as volume comes back up and be vigilant to see evidence that the changes noted in #2 are bearing fruit and were not just smoke. 4. Now that you got in Before the upgrades and notice by most, be patient and reap rewards. No, you did not catch it at the absolute bottom but waited for clear indications that the stock was moving in the right direction and that, hopefully, mitigated risk. Whew, sorry for such a long answer to a simple question. StockHawk