To: Patrick Sharkey who wrote (22997 ) 6/24/1999 4:31:00 PM From: THOMAS GOODRICH Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29386
Patrick, Here's an interesting piece from Perspectives that relates to the second paragraph of your message: >>Perspectives Weekend Edition - Jun 18 Commentary You got to know when to hold em. Know when to fold em. Know when to walk away, and know when to run. The market is smarter than you simply because the market is the cumulative intelligence of everyone who plays it. No matter how much research you do, no matter how much you know about a company, you will never know how a market will react to new information. The market is never wrong, and even when it is wrong, it is right. The market is the ultimate arbiter of truth. The most common mistake that I see when Perspectives readers send me email is the attempt to try and argue against what the market is doing. "The stock is coming off but they are going to announce blah blah and do blah blah, and the stock will rocket higher." Remember, unless you can buy or sell more stock than the market combined, you can not will a stock higher. Hope will have no bearing on where the stock will go. The reasons you have for the stock to do better are likely known by lots of people. If the stock is not doing what your analysis says it should be doing, then your analysis is wrong. I have had company presidents, people who know more about their company than anyone else, tell me information that they probably should not have told me, and tell me that the stock was going to really move higher on the information. Acting on that information would seemingly be acting on inside information. And yet, when the information came out, the market chose not to care. The market factored in something that the company president had not thought about. The market said, sorry Mr President, you are wrong. And I have learned that there is no such thing as a perfect stock tip. Don't ever get married to a story. To be a good trader, you have to have little commitment to your analysis. If you have a hypothesis that the market is confirming to be correct, great, let it run and enjoy. If the market shows you are wrong, fold em, get up from the table, and walk away. Maybe run. Enough Said.<<