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To: BGR who wrote (49278)6/24/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 86076
 
Things look different in pockets like NYC and the Silicon Valley. But, there is no rampant run off in inflation on a national level.

Things sure do look different in silicon valley, and it is WAY uncool. But anyway, I agree there is little or no inflation or wage inflation and at least in the high tech centers (which is where the wage inflation would be if it existed) the internet has allowed outsourcing of huge amounts of labor to cheap producers like Ireland, etc.

However, for those people left here working in tech there actually is huge wage inflation because they are compensated with stock options. So the labor statistics are lying a little.



To: BGR who wrote (49278)6/24/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: per strandberg  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
BGR,

there is no rampant run off in inflation on a national level

How could there be inflation when the Dollar is appreciating
and imports are increasing?

A couple of years ago a Dollar was 6.9 SEK, now 8.45.
The Euro has lost 10% in 6 months, the Brazilean Real about 25% etc.

The rest of the world has been on the verge of deflation.

The US imports have risen much faster than the exports thus transforming inflation into a trade gap of 20% of the export value.
The rest of the world is cheering, using the US for their colonial
strategy of "We produce, you consume". Most countries are trying hard
to depress their own currency to keep this happy state.
E.g. BOE, who is trying to bring the Pound down by selling gold,
as it cannot outright devalue because of the other Euro allies.

The irony is that the FEDs can't even force down the Dollar by printing, as the BOJ will step in and start buying Dollars to keep
it propped up, regardless of what this will do to inflation in Japan.

Raising rates will only increase the strength of the Dollar.

I find it strange that everybody seems to be so happy with inflation
(or the lack of it) when there is this growing trade gap to worry about. Closing it will demand a weaker Dollar and then the inflation
will return with a vengeance.

Regards
Per S



To: BGR who wrote (49278)6/24/1999 2:31:00 PM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
Since you are a believer in efficient markets,
what are bonds telling you about housing inflation
in general? Keep in mind the real rate is defined as the
difference between nominal rates and expected inflation.