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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (63197)	6/24/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572887

Chuck, Re:" Based on the cycle you are talking about and current production capacity and the K6 inventory level, how many K7s do you expect AMD to produce in Q3?" If we assume that AMD fixed its process on 12/31/98. They started pouring out parts at 2Munits/mo on 3/1/99. (this seems to fit with q1 report that they shipped over 2M in march). So they would have kept the ramp steady in Feb/March and APril. My guess is that in APril/May the shit hit the fan when sales dried up. So I would imagine they would have done a hard ramp to K7 in May. My guess is that their K7 capacity is 1.5M pcs/qtr or 400K/mo if they run 100% K7 (1/4 of k6 capacity). Now they would be unlikely to run more than 50% wafers to K7. So at best they would have started 200K/mo on 5/1/99. And these will start rolling out on 8/1/99. This would be consistent with talk of major K7 availability in August onwards. So ABSOLUTE BEST case would be around 500K pcs shipped to customers in Q3 - assuming around 100K units were in the pipe prior to the hard ramp. In Q4 assuming they keep the 200K/mo ramp going one can see close to 800K units plus maybe 100-200K from Dresden if lucky. Regards, Kash Johal.