Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (134449)	6/24/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: Tommy Dorsey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Somehow I don't think three. He realizes that we still have to buy export goods from other countries like Brazil. I don't think he is willing or ready to cool down this economy and risk something truly bad happeing to the south american economies. IF he cools us off we buy less of their products. It seems to me that he would like to talk rates up and has done so. IF Wall Street is programmed to sell stocks if he ratchets up the tates 1-4 then I think we will have a good oportunity coming our way. In 1994 eighty percent of the stocks on the NYSE were down 20% or more at some period that year. Techs bottomed in April and could have been bought then. Our Indicators turned negative in Feb. 94 and positive agian inDec. 1994. the Dow Jones 20 bond average our most important intrest rate indicator turned up Jan. 1995. You could be right, but that's ok too, as we'll be ahead of the curve. Tom

To: stock bull who wrote (134449)	6/24/1999 5:00:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 176387

Stock Bull- Sorry for butting in....I am at a loss why folks are predicting 3 Fed rate hikes given Greenspan's testimony and current market data...Greenspan flat out stated that (3 rate hikes) are not planned in advance....that such decisions are made only at the time of the decision (and not before) because of the (enormous) changes that can occur in the interim.... IMO, for one reason alone, Y2K, the Fed is not going to raise rates 3 times barring a pretty drastic increase in economic data... Do you know what 3 U.S. rates hikes would do to world growth? Greenspan knows that it would severly hurt many, many economies around the world....Other countries would be forced to hike rates (in return)....Before that, safety capital would flow to U.S., compounding growth problems for foreign economies... Japanese GDP data last quarter was rigged...there is an upcoming election, and the head of the ruling party had to show some progress.. Wait 'til next GDP numbers (from Japan)..they are going to be much, much weaker... Europe economy is very weak....very little growth... The problem is....Asia, Europe still operating under old model (export-driven economies)...this can only drive GDP so much (anymore)...barring drastic reform, they are putting a collar on their own growth potential...Until now, many countries in Europe/Asia are not biting the bullet.. Latin America economies struggling.....Brazil, Chile, Venezuela in/at recession.... Remember, oil spiked in April...it has now come back down to more reasonable levels, and it is unlikely that oil will make it back to $ 20 anytime soon...Commodities, although seeing some bounce, remain dormant....Soybeans at a 20 yr. low....and the most powerful factors influencing inflation....this internet/technology revolution, continues unabated....That will have a dampening effect (deflationary) on the economy for some time to come...It will offset The bond market has already overcompensated for the slight increase in inflation this year.... Growth is going to slow in the fall down to 3%..that will be acceptable for the Fed....they will not to continue to raise given current data... The "take back" theory does not make sense to me. The Fed looks at the economy at a specific point in time...By next Fed meeting (after Wednesday), it will be more clear that this economy is weakening, IMO..