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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Benkea who wrote (18469)6/24/1999 5:10:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Benkea; It was when it happened, and a few might trade on it
but it's really history now.
--------------------
Over all I see them on CNBC beating the drums about value stocks
and how these over valued HUGE CAPS are the ones taking a beating
and trying to get people to buy Value stocks..what a crock
--
Well it may be a half truth, but the time for that rotation was
when the bottom hit last OCT, trying it now is like standing
in front of a train.
------
What happens is when the FunBdums try to window dress their
portfolios,
1 they sell some of the big caps taking profits ( that sets up capital
gains to the fund holders )
2 they then buy lesser caps but find as every other fumbdum is doing
almost the same like ducks in a row, the holdings they still have
in the remaining big caps lose value , their nav goes down in
spite of their window dressing.
3 People start wanting out of the funds, redemption's causes them to
sell off more, until it gets to selling some of the new stuff
as the market turns down toward the end the lesser caps always
sell off the hardest, no matter their value it's the small float
that drops them as some funds need to raise cash to let people
out.
4 If it runs it full course then people going into funds from
now to the end of the year might see very little gain, ( if any )
in the navs, but still have to pay cap gains tax at the end
of the year.
---------------
They (funds ) rotated at the wrong time, selling profit to buy
value , but the value won't go up in a down market, as the
cash to buy and hold enough of it is not there.
When the BIG caps put in a bottom then buy , until then remember
thinner traded stocks no matter how much value can get hammered
down more until the tide turns. Often more than the more liquid
ones.