To: Mr. Pink who wrote (10108 ) 6/24/1999 8:04:00 PM From: RockyBalboa Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 18998
Mr P1nk, Any candidates in the commercial lending sector to short? --------> Thursday June 24, 7:39 pm Eastern Time Shakeout seen for U.S. real estate lenders By Tim Ryan NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - Small lenders in commercial real estate are slipping back to overly aggressive underwriting standards and facing an industry shakeout that will have many leaving the business by next year, said panelists at a forum on real estate securitization here this week. The economic upheavel and liquidity crisis of last fall has not yet purged the commercial lending sector of its ills, participants in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market said. ''There are still too many parties chasing too many loans,'' said Daniel Sparks, vice president at Goldman, Sachs & Co, adding that ''there will be fewer originators of loans by the end of next year.'' The shakeout will begin after small commercial real estate lenders get a look at their results for the first quarter of 2000 , said Chuck Rosenzweig, managing director at CDC Mortgage Capital Inc. ''We'll see a good shakeout after the first quarter of next year when they see they didn't make any money, '' he said. Robert Brennan, managing director at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, said he expects many of these players to fail to meet their goals for both profit and origination of loans. ''We'll see some shops close up,'' he said. Daniel Smith, senior director at GE Capital Access, said some players have already seen their profit margins shrink in half. But yearend results may hold some big shocks for some players, added John Taylor, managing director at PaineWebber Commercial Real Estate Securities. ''Some are not operating at a profit at all, but they don't know it yet,'' he said. The specialty finance sector -- particularly home equity lenders -- has already been hit by the events of last fall. A number of those lenders have left the business, put themselves up for sale or filed for bankruptcy. Market analyts said the home equity industry left itself vulnerable to the kind of turmoil experienced during last fall's credit crunch by relying too heavily on securitization as opposed to other forms of financing, and by being too aggressive in their prepayment assumptions and underwriting standards. Those lessons were apparently lost on some players in commercial real estate lending, said participants at the conference hosted by Frank J. Fabozzi/Information Management Network. ''We had about two hours of quality underwriting in January,'' quipped Richard Jarocki, director at Salomon Smith Barney. Among the disturbing trends seen in underwriting is a willingness to lend with lower reserves, and sometimes no reserves required to offset potential losses, said Debra Huddleston, director at Credit Suisse First Boston. ''Underwriting standards on the fixed-rate side are as stretched as ever,'' said Rosenzweig. Brian Baker, vice president at J. P. Morgan, said many originators have become entangled in a ''feed-the-machine'' mindset that is driving them to loosen underwriting standards to keep stoking loan originations. Baker added he was hopeful for a shakeout, which he said should purge the industry of a glut of competition and improve underwriting. <-----------------------