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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (18506)	6/24/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Michael, i have always been a critic of the 'buy-and-hold' strategy touted by Wall Street. it only works well in an extended bull market; under normal circumstances it's plainly nonsensical. at or near the end of an extended bull market it can be disastrous. i have read a study someplace that worked with the simple premise to sell when the SPX breaks it's 200-dma and buy when it goes back above it. even a simple mechanized system as that is far superior to 'buy and hold'. imagine the pain of the 'long term investors' when a true bear market comes. most likely they won't be able to take it and sell at exactly the wrong moment (at bear market bottoms the fear spread via the media is often at it's peak). regards, hb