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Strategies & Market Trends : A@P, Can we trust him, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Miller who wrote (285)	6/26/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Toby Zidle	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 381

It's so easy to distort conclusions with numbers. I understood you to say originally that you knew many people who made 50% profit on their stock picks EVERY day. Now you modify that to: "Many of them are hot. 50% is just a number. But all of the email picks together probably equal about 50% daily." "Many of them are hot." Sure, some people have a knack. Peter Lynch, Warren Buffit, George Soros come to mind. "50% is just a number." The hell it is! This is a weaseling equivocation comparable to something that would come out of Washington. If a guy started with $1000 and compounded it 50% daily, within months he'd have Buffet and Soros working for him. In a year he'd probably buy out Bill Gates. In two years, he'd be working with figures equivalent to the national GDP. Cut that 50% down to 40% (still huge!). You haven't chopped 20% off the yearly return. You've decimated it! Look at it this way: Day #1 $1,000 Day #10 $38,000 (at 50%) .... $21,000 (at 40%) Day #20 $2,217,000 (at 50%) ... $598,000 (at 40%) Day #22 $4,988,000 (at 50%) ... $1,171,000 (at 40%) Day #22 = 1 Trading Month. 50% is 4x better than 40% after 1 month, 16x better after 2 months, 256x better after 4 moths, over 62500x better after 8 months, etc. Guess how many digits 50% daily amounts to in a year. No, 50% is not just a number. It's your number ... your claim ... your integrity. Defend it properly or abdicate it. You know MANY people who make 50% a day! I honestly wish I knew just one. "But all of the email picks together probably equal about 50% daily." Ahh, there's an interpret-however-you-can statement. 20 picks at 2.5% each? Picks that go up 50% on one day and down 50% the next. Picks of which 50% go up (and 50% down)? Email letters that tout their record of fine picking but conveniently ignore the 75% of the picks that a month later have gone nowhere. Come on, Daniel! Apply some logic here. You're either the proverbial 'one that's born every minute' or the hypester's delight.