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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46897)	6/24/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Just some general comments: 1) The only extra capacity of any significance is OPEC and it is sitting at about 6 mbpd. Once we get to the fall, oil demand will swing upward by 3-4 mbpd due to seasonality. Assuming the "glut" is declared gone sometime this year (and OPEC pumps more oil to meet demand), it would look like to me that world-wide excess capacity would be at an alarmingly small 2-3 mbpd. 2) Ala Simmons, aren't we heading for a Non-OPEC supply plunge? I can state several factors that could add together in a big way soon: -- 1998's oil crash decimated high cost Non-Opec production -- Potential to help develop Saudi and Iraq reserves has reduced emphasis on traditional non-OPEC production areas -- Big oil's focus on profits has reduced E&P -- Big Oil's focus on mergers (which take money to execute), has reduced cash available for E&P (as well as reduced focus). 3) Are we not seeing several non-OPEC countries start to need increasing supply of oil for internal use ?? I can think of China and India as starters. 4) Where are all the great calculations from IEA, EIA, or whoever on how much "oversupply" is still left now. At the end of last September there was supposably 170 million barrels of "supply overhang" in OECD countries. Shouldn't we be getting some sort of update on this number ??? I haven't seen one recently. ...Anyway just some random musings, I would appreciate any comments.