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To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (35856)	6/24/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116770

I disagree with you Mark Japan produced goods more efficiently than we did. We consumed them, in some cases they were better than ours and made us think twice.. If the baht had not taken such a drastic fall perhaps Japan would of solved some of her own problems a gradual correction of over evaluation not quite as radical as happened. We have excess debt due to loose credit we have questions of our banking system now. We have a stock market that sees no pe but purely future expectations so what happens to all that money if it drops below what we all look at as standard dow correction. Whoosh it is gone What happens to all the corporate bonds redeemable in stock what about corporate debt re stock value whoosh it gone . What happens to all the people who are margined or in credit up to the hilt in the market whosh payback is gone. What happens to all the corporate options incentives and debt incurred that those options would pay. Japan was lucky her people are conservative. If it was us i feel it would be much broader and much more painful .

To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (35856)	6/25/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116770

The bottom line - the world and the goods it produces and consume, can only be produced and consumed effectively in a state of homeostasis. Clearly there is far too much capacity in today's world - we have become too good at making too much .... for too few that can afford it. So - deflation seems to be the direction we are going ... and that is likely going to be worse than inflation .... which is why I believe that sooner or later the printing presses are going to be going at warp speed ...... Mark, I agree with your bottom line. There are too many goods being produced relative to demand. However, demand has been seriously reduced since Thailand went in the crapper, taking the rest of the Asia along with it. Does that mean that this demand disappeared forever? Clearly not. Would reducing capacity, by default reduce demand?? Yes, since people who are unemployed can demand nothing but a hand-out. Would it be conducive to help facilitate returning demand to past levels in order to meet the production that existed to meet that demand?? Clearly yes. Will that necessitate pumping money (printing money) into their economies?? Yes. Are they currently doing that?? Clearly no, due to IMF austerity requirements. Can the US continue to absorb the excess productivity?? Clearly no. Is the artificial Fed induced turbo-charging of the US economy working? Hmm... jury is still out, but we seem to be benefitting and its keeping the world from falling into depression. Will Y2K create further instability, physical or psychological?? I think it will, and the Asian Contagion may find itself in relapse and maybe even worse than before. Will this present the Fed with another situtation of being forced to inject liquidity?? Quite possibly. Will this be inflationary?? That will be an interesting question since there is so much lost ground to make up for from previous financial turmoil. If you're economically flat on your back, then any more you make to get up on your feet would be considered inflationary. But I don't think it will happen until 1st quarter 2000. There will be money to be made in beaten down stocks. Which I think are due for a thrashing later this fall. Regards, Ron