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To: Tradegod who wrote (64496)	6/24/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Where do they buy?<< I think its a good time to watch from the side lines. Have you noticed that even Mark and William stopped buying? >>MARKET ALERT from The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition. June 24, 1999 Falling bond prices and earnings warnings sent stocks into a downward spiral Thursday. The semiconductor sector, after several earnings warnings by key manufacturers, and financial stocks, which are particularly rate sensitive, were especially hard hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 132 points, or 1.2%, to 10535. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 44 points, or 1.7% to 2554.<<

To: Tradegod who wrote (64496)	6/24/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>1. A .25 rate hike with a tightening bias leaving speculation for more hikes >to follow: Outcome? 10% correction on the dow, 15% on the naz >2. A .50 rate hike appearing as a pre-emptive strike and possiblity of neutral >bias the remainder of the year: Outcome? Neutral to down 5%

To: Tradegod who wrote (64496)	6/24/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Tradegod -- Scenarios 1 and 2 1/4 or 1/2 point -- not the central issue. The die is cast. Scenario 3 -- any further deterioration of bond market. Critical. Driving forces and implications: a) Foreign money is leaving the bond market b) Greenspan wants everybody out of the pool for a while, so he is draining it for spring cleaning -- wants to get this done before Y2k paranoia sets in. Could care less about economic data. Wants to do 'scheduled maintanence' and nothing is going to stop him now. c) US money managers will sit on their hands until we get to 6.25 to 6.5 range on the long bond. Then US money will replace foreign money in the bond market -- shifting from stocks to bonds. Then everybody is happy -- unless you own stocks in general or techs/nets in particular -- ie. most people on this thread. Downside 10% next week and another 10-15% the flowing couple of weeks as people leave for the summer and say 'screw this'.