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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6266)	6/25/1999 8:03:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc I think Bob was quite clear if not adamant that we need to see new highs for a bear market call and that a bear call from his model does not come out after we've already corrected somewhat I agree but I have only heard Bob talk about the scenario within the context of one possible rate increase. As a matter of fact, my understanding of his comments indicate that bond market rates are higher than they should be based on inflation expectations. It is not clear in my mind whether or not Bob's comments were reflective of more than one rate increase.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6266)	6/25/1999 8:06:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

U.S. may face recession as mkt bubble bursts -HSBC LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy could face recession by 2001 as the financial market bubble is likely to burst, driving asset prices sharply lower by the end of this year, HSBC Securities said in its latest research. In a 52-page report entitled ''Bubble Trouble,'' HSBC economists argued a combination of rising interest rates and a falling dollar was likely to herald the end of the bull market. ''We see both coming through in the second half of this year, suggesting a significant risk of a sharp and sustained fall in asset prices towards the end of the year and in the first half of 2000,'' HSBC said. ''This combination is likely to deliver a slowdown in growth through 2000 and raises the risk of outright recession in 2001,'' it said. The U.S. productivity miracle of strong growth without inflation has given way to a financial bubble on the back of excessive equity prices, while investors have been seduced into believing in permanent 'new economic paradigms'. ''These beliefs normally end in tears,'' HSBC warned, adding that despite low inflation, excess demand pressures still tend to trigger an interest rate response. ''The rest of the world will not be immune. Falling U.S. equity prices and a weaker dollar will create new problems for both Japan and Euroland, increasing the dangers of outright global recession.''

To: marc ultra who wrote (6266)	6/27/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

Put/Call ratio. Since Bob mentioned it I realized I hadn't checked it for awhile. The 10 DMA is again turning toward the extreme bullish sentiment area.Currently down to .54 and .50 is about as low as it generally goes. Looks like with a run to new highs things may be falling in place for a change in direction decisionpoint.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (6266)	6/28/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

May be coming out of our Brownian motion market and may be starting our move to new highs. If we pick up our 4% or so from here and approach new highs can an inflection point be far behind? If the gift horse is a glittering white horse that exudes bright lights that blinds most to its importance what is it that may appear at a negative inflection point?, a cockroach falling on its back with its legs wiggling to to and fro? I think not, instead it will appear as a sign of opportunity and further wealth to those who have successfully played the dips for years and will be convinced the next major leg of the bull will be underway with a giant bull appearing to be present. What they will not see is that hiding behind an inflection point will be a giant matador who at the appropriate time will come out of hiding and stick an outsized fork in the bull. As the bull goes down, smelling fresh meat the mighty bear will quickly descend eating up not only the bull but all those who have decided to ride on its new paradigm back and can not conceive that riding the bull may no longer take them where they wish to go. Marc