To: Candle stick who wrote (1886 ) 6/25/1999 10:07:00 AM From: Sir Auric Goldfinger Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4443
Even Cramer gets it, but not the CSer: "Little Interest in Short Interest By James J. Cramer Every time the short-interest figures come out, I brace myself for a mountain of email about how to use these numbers to make money. So let me pre-empt the mail: You can't. That's right, these numbers cannot make you money. Been there, tried that, failed. I have attempted over the course of the last two decades to make money off these numbers in a variety of ways. I have picked the most shorted stocks and bet that maybe we could get a squeeze (a short squeeze that moves a stock higher as people cover the short). I have shorted the most heavily shorted stocks, betting that something bad will occur (all after doing homework on the fundamentals). I have tracked the stocks with small floats that are heavily shorted to see if the "days to cover" figures might spontaneously cause a rush up if anything good happens. Nothing worked. Nada. First, these numbers are hopelessly incomplete. There is so much trading that is derivative or against convertible bonds or against options or against indices that you are just spinning your wheels on this stuff to get it to work for you. You don't get to see what these shorts might be against. Arbitrage corrupts these figures. The lack of reporting requirements on derivatives, especially off-board derivatives (private trades between brokerage houses and institutions), renders them just plan irrelevant. I also find these numbers virtually useless as an indicator for where the market is going. When I first got in the business, a big short-interest figure meant that the market had to go higher because of all the stock that had to be bought to cover. Then there would be these big decreases in the number of shorts, and nothing would happen -- again because the numbers are so distorted by arbitrage. So why bother to publish them? Beats me.