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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (23565)	6/25/1999 6:45:00 AM
From: REH	Respond to of 93625

No Summer Dog Days For Chips This Year Direct Rambus DRAM May Be Summer Blockbuster. June 21st, 1999 In This Article • No Summer Dog Days For Chips This Year • I Feel The Need: The Need For Speed! • Waterworld Wasn't Cheap, You Know • Is El Camino Real? • The Balcony Isn't Closed Industry wonks used to refer to the summer months as the "summer slowdown," when all the marketing types jetted off to exotic locales and let journalists camp out for the latest flicks. Not this year. During June, July, and August, chip vendors will be working frantically to prepare the industry for its own blockbuster: Direct Rambus DRAM. Like any good feature film, the launch of Direct RDRAM has been seeded with months of hype, much of it created within the industry. But the question for many will be whether the initiative will prove to be a success of Godzilla-like proportions, or merely another phantom menace. Trying to compare Direct Rambus DRAM and its nominal competitor, PC133 synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), is fraught with perils akin to the opening scenes of Saving Private Ryan, a nightmare of deafening public-relations outcries and explosive technical discussions layered over the cruel, uncaring economics of chip manufacturing. At Last We Shall Reveal Ourselves To The Jedi Main memory within a PC has evolved over time, through different evolutionary technical specifications: from fast-page-mode, through extended-data-out (EDO) and finally to synchronous DRAM, or SDRAM. Each flavor has had its own technical selling points, but in general each has transferred data faster or with shorter delays than the prior generation. Along the way, a host of alternative-memory types has been proposed, such as Enhanced SDRAM, Direct Rambus, and Virtual Channel Memory, to name but a few. Direct Rambus is the third generation of Rambus parts; prior Rambus generations are used within the Nintendo64 game console. But each of these memories has claimed to be revolutionary, not just evolutionary. For Rambus, that's the promise and the problem, all in one sentence. A revolution can produce a dramatic change, but requires both material and manpower together with a political, social, and economic commitment. Shifting the PC to Direct Rambus DRAM requires the support of DRAM, chip set, OEM, and test-equipment manufacturers, each from a technical, economic, and, yes, even a political perspective. Unfortunately, the commitment to Rambus seems more like the attitude toward Vietnam than to World War II, no disrespect intended. And the debate over manufacturing and selling Direct Rambus parts has provoked fusillades of press releases, clouds of FUD [Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt], and even a lawsuit, later retracted.

To: unclewest who wrote (23565)	6/25/1999 7:05:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Respond to of 93625

Uncle, I am assuming that DELL's commencing to use RDRAM in their workstations is a 2 step approach. I am assuming that Desktop applications will follow. This is effectively delaying real the run up until the introduction of the low cost INTC chip set (Timina) I believe Is HP, Gateway; CPQ or a no-name likely to beat DELL into the Desktop? I doubt it, but in a lap top maybe? Alan

To: unclewest who wrote (23565)	6/25/1999 8:36:00 AM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

unclewest: Third quarter 2000 is a while away for RDRAM support for AMD K7. The reality is that the 20-25% part of the non-Intel microprocessor businesses are NOT dropping their non-RDRAM plans. They just can't afford to commit resources to RDRAM yet. Edelston, Dataquest or any other market forecasters have not changed approx. predictions for 3% market share in 1999 leading up to 50% market share in 2001. You have to keep these benchmark numbers in mind when trying to justify short term or long term RMBS stock price. I think in last month or two, we have seen the most rapid phase in price appreciation that we will see in RMBS stock for a while.