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To: John Hunt who wrote (35879)6/25/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: John Hunt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 117020
 
Blue Skies

<< I finally get it. The scales are off my eyes. It is all so clear now that its hard to believe that I have been so deluded for these last three years. The problem was I have been too negative these last three years but then Mr. Greenspan explained it all.

The key here is productivity and Mr. Greenspan says this concept has allowed the economy to expand with tight labor conditions but very low inflation. Capital investment has replaced the need for more labor. A simple determination of productivity in the economy can be made by dividing GDP by the number of hours worked. There is a tendency for the productivity to increase as GDP expands because the accurate measurement of hours worked is difficult.

Now in truth I have been a little dubious about the usefulness of the concept of productivity in a service based economy. To my mind the last big productivity increase in the service sector was the elimination of elevator operators. A good barber still talks while he cuts, making the time pass more quickly, but charges $10. Compare this to a hair stylist who takes the same amount of time but charges $30. I'm not sure that quality is that a big a factor here but in the GDP measurement of productivity in order to avoid inflationary effects the hairstylist's service would have to be three times as good as the barber's. Maybe computers have made government agencies more productive but the local Department of Motor Vehicles Office and the well publicized problems of the IRS seem to belie that notion ... more ... >>

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