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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6276)	6/25/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 15132

Marc The model is not however some ethereal concept floating in the universe but is backed by one man in whom you either place confidence or not Your post is well stated as usual and I agree with many of the points. While my confidence in Bob is very high I have been a bit more cautious because of a decreasing money supply, interest rates heading higher, market mania or speculation in some sectors, sentiment factors...and yada this and yada that. My other major concern is that the market is at historically high price earnings and is no bargain at current levels. Although Bob has been right to date I would have thought him a bit more cautious at these valuation levels; I would have thought he would have suggested taking some profits by now but only in hindsight will we be able to analyze what was or was not the proper strategy. Thus, my 70 / 30 allocation...which is a bit deceptive because Vodafone, (a BB recommendation circa 1989), makes up a major position in my portfolio and it has been printing money for me at a rapid rate lately. P.S. Hey Bob, when will we get a Vodafone update. The Vodafone-Airtouch merger is one of the best telecommunications combinations to come along in years.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6276)	6/25/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

marc, I highly doubt that total market "timing" as you propound will have much, if any, effect on your finances long term. Probably only delay their appreciation. Least of possibly profitable approaches is to try to follow, on a daily basis, a "market timer". If you were dealing with index or commodities futures it would begin to make sense, but with just a bag of equities? I think there are much more leisurely pursuits of time-wasting that will give more satisfaction. As for the general talk on interest rates, I think the best that could happen would be a 1/2 point increase and removal of the bias. This may produce a superficial stock slide that would in fact last less than 1/2 of a day, as its the only alternative that is favorable both to bond and stock sentiment. It removes the prospect for immediate future increases (remember they claim they'll warn before new rate increase) and delivers what is percieved to be tough medicine. 1/4 point, retain bias - not enough, no closure to issue 1/4 point, remove bias - worst case no action next-to-worst case, improbable. Greg