To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (64662 ) 6/25/1999 3:47:00 PM From: Eric Wells Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 164684
Michelle - thanks for your message. There are three other things that I forgot to mention that are weighing against AMZN: 1. Internet taxes - this is bound to happen at some point - it may not be for a year or two. But when and if it does happen, it will reduce any price advantage that Amazon may have over the local bookstore. My office is about four blocks away from a very large Borders. Today, buying your average book with taxes at Borders comes out to be about the same price as buying from Amazon with shipping. However, if a customer has to pay taxes on an Amazon book, then the final price will most likely be higher than the local Borders. It's hard to say how much this might eat into their business - it might have little effect. However, I think it will have some impact (I've bought many more books at that Borders that I have at Amazon). 2. Amazon has rather large debt position at the moment - I believe it is over $1 billion. I believe the debt is in the form of a convertible bond - however, the stock price at which the bond could have been converted was never reached. This means that Amazon is going to have pay interest on the bond - and the interest payment will come directly out of profits (or I should say, will contribute to their losses). 3. The following news story appeared on MarketWatch today:cbs.marketwatch.com I find it odd in that the story quotes a confidant of Galli, Amazon's new president, as saying "Joe must have a lot of creative ideas on making Amazon work and to transform it. He knows about its problems." I find this statement odd, in that it suggests that Bezos has not done a good job as president - it suggests that Amazon has problems. I don't believe that Amazon is generally thought of as "having problems" - they are viewed as an internet pioneer with a great business strategy. I feel they do have problems though. I think a company should work to show a profit for the benefit of their stockholders. Bezos has neer proven he can make a profit. What do we do if he never makes one. Compare Bezos to Bill Gates. Microsoft was profitable before their IPO - they proved they could make money. Amazon has not. Again, I think Amazon is a great company - and I think they will be profitable. However, I don't think they will be profitable enough to justify their stock price any time soon - in fact, I think there is a chance they may never be profitable enough to justify their current stock price. Thanks, -Eric Wells