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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (64690)	6/25/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>>I have trouble putting my trust in Jeff Bezos, who has never been a CEO of a company before, continually telling us that "profits are not important now". I try to imagine Bill Gates saying this to Microsoft shareholders, or Larry Ellison saying this to Oracle shareholders - and I can only think that Bill and Larry would be hounded endlessly and driven from their posts. Profits are important - they are life blood that continue to drive business - without profits, you can only stay in business for so long (until your money runs out).<< On one side or the other, this is the central issue, IMO. Remember though, this is not the same model as a software company. This is a land grab. Success is defined by quickly developing the largest critical mass, the strongest brand. Amazon has achieved that so far. It will be very hard for any competitor to take that away, and relatively easy to Amazon to extend it. That's what all the spending is about.

To: Eric Wells who wrote (64690)	6/25/1999 7:03:00 PM
From: ypz	Respond to of 164684

>>I believe Bezos has done a very poor job in reassuring shareholders on the manner in which profits will be forthcoming in the future. Eric, I cannot say that I trust Jeff Bezos either. But Do you think that he does know when Amazon can actually make a profit? In this regard, you may even like the fact that he does not make any empty promises. He does not say that "profits are not important now" thing lately, which used to please Wall St analysts and drive up the share price. However, the recent moves suggest that he does know that profits are important. Moving into Auction, hiring COO, and new CFO are all good signs. Wait to see what happens next. ---ypz

To: Eric Wells who wrote (64690)	6/25/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Eric, Your arguments about Amazon are extremely well down. I could not agree more to date regarding the FA analysis you made. I even differ with William Harmond in his opinion that the cost of doing business online is less than in a brick and mortar retailer. To keep this in perspective, I was short last year from a split adjusted $13 per share and finally covered my last short shares at $191. It was a nightmare come true and a learning experience about how far a stock can run. This has nothing to do with your being short nor with your reasoning. There is always a bias when it comes to gains and losses and I just wanted you to know my history with the AMZN stock. Currently I am long at an average of $115-$116. I also agree with your comment regarding the change in market sentiment on the internets. Also, the increase supply of shares reduces the likelyhood of a large rise in share price. I have my reasons for being long. They have nothing to do with with books, music or video. I argue and believe it is accurate to say that the cost of fulfillment of these products exceeds gross margins and likely will always do so. Amazon can command a slightly higher gross margin in these products on the net due to the customers feeling comfortable with the name. That still will not be enough gross margin to show a profit. Let's consider these commodity low margin products lost leaders. Let's both agree it is impossible to turn a profit on these items. I know some will differ with you and I regarding that statement. Amazon has leased and acquired approximatley ten very large distribution centers very well geographically positioned throughout the US. There is far too much capacity here for the above named product. It makes no sense. I am now assuming if management is on the up and up, commodity items with low gross margins is not their real plan. Their plan is to sell much larger ticket products that as a rule are very expensive to inventory and ship. I am quite confident major appliances is one of them. others may be large screen TVs, various furniture such as Lazy Boys, etc. The books, videos, auctions, etc. brought the people to the virtual store. These other products will be noticed without a huge outlay relatively in marketing expenses. The people are able to see them once in the virtual store. This is where I see Amazon having an advantage over brick and mortar stores. The shipping distances will be short for these heavier and bulkier products. Amazon has enough storage are to inventory the product in various, sizes, colors, styles, etc. If sales are quick enough, then Amazon will receive their money prior to paying for the inventory. That was not a large enough issue for me when it came to commodities. The last bullish comment is sentiment will become more bullish in the fall as the holiday season approaches. The investing public, myself included, does not know what kind of a season Amazon will have. This will carry momentum through January. I presently do not have plans for my Amazon stock after Janaury because I do not know what products they will ad and how well they will execute. The trend may continue down to neutral for another six weeks but the trend then will be up. That is my best guess based on the above comments. I can't tell you how pleased I am to see an Amazon bear making a real FA argument. There are others here that make a good bearish argument. GST based on macro economics and Sarmad on investor psychology. Jan and Sarmad will go with the flow in either direction. James makes it clear he believe Amazon is over valued where as there is one individual on this thread that states Amazon will lose 90% of its value without giving a reason. It is a bit difficult to learn much from that approach. Again I just want to say welcome. Glenn