To: The Phoenix who wrote (26636 ) 6/28/1999 12:15:00 AM From: Techplayer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
Gary, Interesting comments from a post on the CMTO thread regarding IP versus circuit switch rollout for cable based telephony. Brian The year 1999 marks the pilot for AT&T's telephony rollout over cable, in which 10 markets will be targeted. AT&T expects a negligible number of customers from this initial However, in 2000, Mr. Armstrong believes telephony will grow to include several hundred thousand customers (we interpret this as a range of 500,000 to 1 mil-lion lines). By 2001, AT&T expects that full rollout will be achieved, with more than 1 million lines installed per year. In addition, AT&T has clearly stated that Internet protocol (IP) would be phased-in gradually, and that initially it will deploy a circuit-switched product. AT&T forecasts 30% penetration in 3–5 years. We feel this is realistic unless the UMG acquisition is postponed. Cox Communications Presentation (COX, $36, Outper-form). More than any other cable company, Cox has com-pleted the transition to becoming a telecommunications pro-vider, and its growth comes from a wider array of products. Cox made three important points regarding its telephony rollout: It plans to offer both residential and commercial telephony, which we believe could provide equal cash flows. In our most optimistic scenario, we would expect telephony to generate $100 million dollars of EBITDA in 2000 from combined residential and commercial telephony. Within 5–8 years, residential and commercial telephony could generate an estimated $700 million of EBITDA. Cox believes that an IP telephony product is 2–3 years away. The prerequisites for launching either IP or circuit-switched telephony include getting the public permits to put distributed power supplies in each of its markets; installing OSS/BSS capabilities (operating software and business software); and increasing staffing levels in each system to accommodate the actual volume. There does not appear to be a capital cost advantage for IP over circuit-switched technology even after IP becomes available in several years.